NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7d5fbf7646b63cb37496e8363b1121c84dfd0e09b84462ef95a7bf07f11a18d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 50c | 42,825$21,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,412.65 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Under | 50c | 39,391$19,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,695.43 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 12,650$6,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,199.86 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Over | 51c | 8,633$4,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,230.03 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Over | 51c | 4,758$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,331.34 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 49c | 3,266$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.33 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…9bdabacked Under | 50c | 1,940$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 1,837$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.59 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…236dbacked Under | 50c | 1,164$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e5…7a2bbacked Over | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Over | 50c | 1,010$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.46 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 19c | 516.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…d614backed Under | 4c | 427.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 258 | 46.9%121 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…2cabbacked Over | 55c | 288.05$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 50c | 268.69$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 266.07$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 212.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.09 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 52c | 206.51$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…45fbbacked Over | 51c | 191.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 67c | 153.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 192 | 45.3%87 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Under | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 52c | 146$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 50c | 116.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…a052backed Over | 63c | 108.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 320 | 45.3%145 W · 175 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 253 | 60.1%152 W · 101 L | +26.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 19c | 89.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed Over | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c14…6ef9backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.29per pick | 36cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4122backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 296 | 65.5%194 W · 102 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Over | 51c | 37.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 519 | 46.8%243 W · 276 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 32.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 30.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 279 | 45.9%128 W · 151 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 49c | 29.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…5159backed Under | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…83a4backed Under | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 22.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 50c | 21.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Mark Williams: Points O/U 1.5No won
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Suns won
- Thunder vs. SunsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.