TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Thunder, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,269,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,262,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,269,882 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Thunder48c511,141$245,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245,347.5887451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Suns52c385,185$200,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184,888.88148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Suns52c200,998$104,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,193.1469848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Suns51c93,815$47,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,228.1820758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de4…b032backed Thunder48c70,002$33,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,900.962458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Thunder52c70,000$36,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,399.9411333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Thunder49c60,000$29,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,199.9537627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Suns52c59,543$30,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,580.8674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Suns52c54,240$28,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,232.5859347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Suns52c50,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,00020545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Suns48c48,641$23,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,094.481,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Thunder48c40,367$19,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,3769945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Suns51c34,966$17,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,133.115154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Thunder48c30,663$14,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,618.1519754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Thunder49c29,853$14,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,538.281,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Thunder48c24,650$11,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,832.0463746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a35…2fadbacked Suns53c23,559$12,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,080.783138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Thunder48c20,183$9,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6888452.4%44 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Suns52c20,002$10,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,600.8814842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Thunder49c17,035$8,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,325.2432351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Thunder48c15,561$7,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4361,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Suns52c15,552$8,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,464.7320946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e5…905bbacked Thunder50c15,210$7,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,604.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder49c15,000$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,35014538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Suns53c13,096$6,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,205.714,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Thunder48c13,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,199.9911864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Thunder47c12,347$5,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,803.2728643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Thunder47c10,654$5,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,007.4524942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fd…89debacked Thunder50c9,700$4,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8502941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Thunder48c9,663$4,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,638.2490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Suns53c9,287$4,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,364.6629650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns56c8,869$4,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,902.118,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Thunder49c8,616$4,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,221.85848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Thunder47c8,110$3,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,811.731644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Thunder62c8,000$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,959.988451.2%43 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Suns54c7,227$3,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,338.0211654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Suns38c7,187$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,450.4261638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Thunder47c6,489$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.8338946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Thunder47c6,180$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,904.614251.4%73 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns52c5,822$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,822.574,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfb…0b3dbacked Thunder47c5,356$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.325940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Suns54c5,307$2,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.3210553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Suns53c4,859$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.738153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Suns48c4,495$2,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,337.442,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Suns48c4,033$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.7921142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Thunder47c3,842$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.6921943.4%95 W · 124 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed Thunder47c3,785$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.955543.6%24 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Thunder48c3,534$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.713,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder48c3,482$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6846,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Suns52c3,361$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.71,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Suns49c3,297$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.3912058.3%70 W · 50 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Suns52c3,266$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.391,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Thunder34c3,198$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.2510248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Suns53c2,942$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.8656453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Suns52c2,777$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.9249249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Thunder48c2,523$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21114854.1%80 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Thunder50c2,522$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.8235650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Suns51c2,388$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.3845146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f3…0d2cbacked Suns53c2,384$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.327054.3%38 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Suns53c2,263$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.084949%24 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Thunder48c2,226$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.2344740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Thunder49c2,171$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.7659250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Suns51c2,111$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.542,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3c…8039backed Suns50c2,100$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+55.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Suns48c2,018$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.5316261.7%100 W · 62 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Thunder49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Suns52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96058740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Suns51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98021653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53d6…b6e8backed Thunder49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9801947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Suns52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.892,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder48c1,898$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.081,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Thunder48c1,863$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Suns53c1,834$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.7812051.7%62 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d0…5a98backed Thunder49c1,733$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.194257.1%24 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26be…7239backed Thunder52c1,698$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.932445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Thunder58c1,681$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.843269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Thunder48c1,594$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.7616439.6%65 W · 99 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe647…2040backed Thunder48c1,514$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.65354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Suns51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7352,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked Thunder42c1,498$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ee…a073backed Suns66c1,369$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.573661.1%22 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Thunder47c1,350$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.520057%114 W · 86 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Suns47c1,157$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.6755251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Thunder48c1,054$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.9725840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Suns52c1,020$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.65330.2%16 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Suns52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48065045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Thunder42c990.6$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.0522039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d96…7c16backed Thunder47c981.23$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.18922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-57.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc9e…441dbacked Suns53c971.8$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.75825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Suns52c968.24$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.0462051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Suns51c918.5$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.4345251.1%231 W · 221 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Thunder53c914.96$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.931747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Thunder25c854.32$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9520353.7%109 W · 94 L+21.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Suns52c839.77$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.0989853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2b…e77abacked Thunder47c826.84$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.623053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Suns53c801.13$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.4434850.9%177 W · 171 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Suns47c779.96$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.3411639.7%46 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Thunder2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15420%0 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Suns39c742.45$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.4428838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.