Tennis · resolved market
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Roberto Carballes Baena
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fe6d5e46e2d550299a548d9b7969aa209e2c89c46c0ac5aa9b134215905d1b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baenaof Busta, Baena
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baena | 62c | 16,931$10,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,513.52 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Baena | 59c | 11,819$7,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,801.36 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Busta | 49c | 11,289$5,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,561.26 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baena | 49c | 8,563$4,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400.18 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Baena | 55c | 8,448$4,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,764.49 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Busta | 50c | 5,240$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.5 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Busta | 50c | 5,126$2,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,576.35 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Busta | 48c | 4,962$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.57 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Busta | 39c | 4,371$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.44 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Baena | 40c | 3,751$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.8 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Busta | 43c | 2,664$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.86 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc44…e036backed Busta | 59c | 2,526$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.34 | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Busta | 49c | 2,475$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.7 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…a3f3backed Busta | 13c | 1,874$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 112 | 15.2%17 W · 95 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Busta | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Busta | 46c | 1,619$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.57 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked Baena | 58c | 1,610$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.34 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked Baena | 61c | 1,560$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.22 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Busta | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 394 | 31%122 W · 272 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Busta | 60c | 1,425$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…7e22backed Baena | 62c | 1,375$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.9 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…540bbacked Busta | 43c | 1,056$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Busta | 49c | 1,016$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Busta | 49c | 989.8$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Busta | 63c | 962.81$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.25 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…28abbacked Busta | 52c | 812$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Busta | 43c | 798.31$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.11 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Busta | 59c | 777$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.43 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Busta | 35c | 717.14$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 519 | 33.1%172 W · 347 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Busta | 30c | 707.4$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.22 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Baena | 56c | 691.4$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.71 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Baena | 37c | 631$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.53 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Busta | 60c | 501.25$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.75 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Baena | 36c | 497.76$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.43 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…83babacked Busta | 36c | 465.79$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 847 | 36%305 W · 542 L | -35.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Baena | 53c | 447$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.08 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Busta | 60c | 382.91$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.74 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…11cbbacked Busta | 31c | 379.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Baena | 62c | 350.67$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.37 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Busta | 64c | 321.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.49 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Busta | 60c | 301.33$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Baena | 48c | 289.46$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.71 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Baena | 53c | 205.06$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Baena | 73c | 204.12$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Baena | 36c | 190.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9295…0cd1backed Busta | 64c | 186.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Busta | 14c | 175.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 328 | 37.5%123 W · 205 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe575…8b12backed Busta | 58c | 170.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Busta | 58c | 158.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…dea9backed Busta | 60c | 157.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…36b4backed Busta | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Busta | 64c | 135.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Baena | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Busta | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Busta | 54c | 121.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Busta | 64c | 109.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 194 | 66%128 W · 66 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…9ab3backed Busta | 65c | 108.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Baena | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Busta | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…f560backed Baena | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Baena | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Baena | 37c | 89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Busta | 60c | 86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -13.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Busta | 64c | 84.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Busta | 53c | 75.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Baena | 58c | 70.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 275 | 43.3%119 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Baena | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…dda4backed Busta | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Baena | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Busta | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…ef61backed Busta | 62c | 40.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baena | 57c | 36.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3422…cd99backed Busta | 44c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192f…352bbacked Busta | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Busta | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Busta | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…93aebacked Busta | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…8b7dbacked Busta | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 268 | 37.3%100 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…e817backed Baena | 60c | 29.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…98f5backed Baena | 67c | 20.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.