Chess · resolved market
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813ab9ca061e1b40151c3791209fb87e9cd6729dd806170830f89cf92ca01903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 43c | 3,686$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.4 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked Yes | 62c | 1,049$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 38c | 704.87$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.69 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 668.98$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 602$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 50c | 594.37$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.59 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 56c | 580.11$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.51 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…635abacked Yes | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes | 51c | 467.31$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 447.11$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…99c7backed Yes | 70c | 409.8$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 405.42$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 274$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.76 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 243.78$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 229.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 50c | 198.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934d…fe1cbacked No | 51c | 193.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 58c | 175.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…149cbacked Yes | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 111.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…a5d3backed Yes | 32c | 108.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 76c | 105.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 34c | 95.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…3299backed No | 17c | 85.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c8…6189backed Yes | 47c | 85.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +322.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…a520backed Yes | 60c | 73.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 57.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 55.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed Yes | 38c | 52.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a7…8ac3backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0535…fd35backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c81…8f47backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 47.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 47.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 33c | 44.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 42.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 56c | 41.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 42c | 37.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed Yes | 56c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 59c | 33.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…5a19backed No | 50c | 27.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…3014backed Yes | 72c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…43b5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…8feebacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia?this page
- Will Anish Giri win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia?No won
- Will Jorden Van Foreest win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Croatia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.