Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813ca6fb4807a13a624741848f29f4c0a8e63af9e04e0577ccb45414bc6accf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 56c | 2,594$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.59 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 39c | 1,382$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 57c | 699.81$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.1 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 660.75$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 43c | 450$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 44c | 448.36$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 38c | 406.37$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 25c | 401.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 43c | 372$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 56c | 356$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.64 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 25c | 343.88$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.25 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 319$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 316.27$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 238.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 10c | 221.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 220.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 59c | 212.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 65c | 198.7$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 198.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 50c | 195.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 195.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 72c | 181.39$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 33c | 178$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 173.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 58c | 171.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 165.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 156.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 150.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 38c | 139.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 8c | 137.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 69c | 134.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 56c | 132.35$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 53c | 124.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 42c | 124$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 56c | 119.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb80…664abacked No | 15c | 114.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 18c | 112.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 111.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 110.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 59c | 107.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 71c | 97.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 41c | 97.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 77c | 92.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 91.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 44c | 90.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 87.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 50c | 85.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 43c | 82.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 60c | 75.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 70c | 73.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 70c | 70.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 70.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 68.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 80c | 66.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed No | 57c | 66.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 70c | 65.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4039…7caebacked Yes | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 69c | 62.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 19c | 62.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 59c | 60.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2790…6331backed No | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1331backed Yes | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 60c | 51.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 47.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 49c | 47.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 39c | 46.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 60c | 46.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 60c | 46.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 37c | 44.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 68c | 43.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 54c | 41.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 44c | 41.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 59c | 41.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed No | 59c | 41.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 40.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 39.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 77c | 35.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 59c | 35.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.