Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c4194a7e757e82d6bac870ad33f1ccc2f61634647e323b3ec6494e1c06b3ed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 1,432$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 22c | 1,100$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.31 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 655.56$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 73c | 468.11$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.01 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 304.84$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 288.63$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 260.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 240.01$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 237.04$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 221.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 216.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 13c | 195$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 187.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 187$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 29c | 176.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 45c | 167.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 72c | 165.38$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 153.7$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 146.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 135$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 29c | 121.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 118$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 116.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 115.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 113.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 22c | 113.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 113$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 112$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 51c | 93.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 65c | 92.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 18c | 91.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 39c | 89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 58c | 87.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 85.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 17c | 80.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 74c | 77.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 75c | 75.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 73.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 54c | 72.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed No | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 69.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked Yes | 80c | 66.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 62.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 32c | 60.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…c545backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 79c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 42c | 57.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 74c | 57.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 55.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 54.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 80c | 49.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 49.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 48.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 46.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 75c | 46.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 33c | 45.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 45.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 34c | 43.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 36c | 41.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 40.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 77c | 40.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 30c | 39.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 35.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 41c | 35.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 60c | 33.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 37c | 33.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 80c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 32.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 69c | 31.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 54c | 30.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 30.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 76c | 29.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 47c | 28.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 40c | 28.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 62c | 26.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 42c | 24.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 20.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 70c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e68…d2a6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.