TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Vici Gaming, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$659,267
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$789,832

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,267 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Yandex72c102,526$73,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,025.911,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Vici Gaming24c83,829$20,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,164.8871143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Yandex72c47,120$34,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,090.9296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Vici Gaming27c36,533$10,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,003.7812159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Yandex73c21,147$15,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,709.8240051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Vici Gaming30c20,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00047646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Yandex72c18,627$13,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,174.5728159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Yandex78c15,176$11,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,289.5280256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Vici Gaming29c15,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.9919847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vici Gaming15c13,108$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.221,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Vici Gaming18c12,858$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.281,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Vici Gaming2c12,450$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.5340014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Vici Gaming17c12,109$2,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,093.281,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Vici Gaming9c11,754$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10047650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed Vici Gaming10c11,731$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23116553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Vici Gaming28c10,150$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8421,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Vici Gaming28c10,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Vici Gaming27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70030452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Vici Gaming28c10,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.9941944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Vici Gaming29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.9829042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Vici Gaming1c7,983$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8337811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Vici Gaming29c7,635$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.2356955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Vici Gaming28c7,176$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.9231248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Yandex76c6,368$4,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.6453764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Team Yandex76c6,000$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4409556.8%54 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Yandex72c5,549$4,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.953451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Vici Gaming8c5,547$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.6722450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Vici Gaming27c5,246$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.191,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5b…26e2backed Vici Gaming14c4,818$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.455046%23 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Vici Gaming1c4,750$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5537018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Team Yandex73c4,648$3,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.1921158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Vici Gaming17c4,545$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.341,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Yandex80c4,430$3,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.3761456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed Vici Gaming24c4,167$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Vici Gaming5c3,462$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18165625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Vici Gaming15c3,408$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.8829352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Vici Gaming28c3,250$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91029348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Vici Gaming9c3,077$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9733453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Vici Gaming8c3,030$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.2777458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Vici Gaming22c2,981$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.8636343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Vici Gaming13c2,621$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.2839343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed Team Yandex76c2,605$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.2718446.7%86 W · 98 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked Vici Gaming7c2,600$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.659042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Team Yandex74c2,581$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.18360.2%50 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed Vici Gaming4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Vici Gaming28c2,500$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.4858744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Vici Gaming16c2,333$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.822817.9%5 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Vici Gaming22c2,273$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a96…7a34backed Vici Gaming24c2,101$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.163735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96a8…6107backed Vici Gaming23c2,066$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.887439.2%29 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Yandex70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60088539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x332f…1ee8backed Team Yandex72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5609253.3%49 W · 43 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0434…438fbacked Team Yandex71c1,921$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.152185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Team Yandex80c1,870$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37410651.9%55 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Vici Gaming27c1,699$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.1328347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x022b…35aebacked Team Yandex79c1,653$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.862142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Vici Gaming22c1,645$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Vici Gaming25c1,574$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016641%68 W · 98 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0cc…c8ddbacked Vici Gaming3c1,532$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.021177.7%9 W · 108 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked Vici Gaming4c1,530$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.210551.4%54 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Vici Gaming29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4351,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Vici Gaming2c1,500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.056132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Vici Gaming14c1,495$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6669132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cec…d241backed Vici Gaming24c1,417$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Vici Gaming3c1,381$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa226…edadbacked Vici Gaming22c1,320$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.2611444.7%51 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x028a…f485backed Team Yandex76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.791526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed Team Yandex73c1,311$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.17263.9%46 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b26…21e0backed Team Yandex76c1,291$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.9613464.9%87 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Vici Gaming11c1,286$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2450353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Vici Gaming5c1,272$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6745352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Yandex78c1,252$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.3979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Vici Gaming4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c13…71a1backed Vici Gaming16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004540%18 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed Team Yandex73c1,250$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.58958.4%52 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d7…36e7backed Team Yandex74c1,216$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Vici Gaming29c1,188$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.2824153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Vici Gaming22c1,150$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25314943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9048…d351backed Vici Gaming27c1,104$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009640.6%39 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Vici Gaming28c1,074$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.7235951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Vici Gaming4c1,065$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.626147.9%125 W · 136 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Team Yandex80c1,035$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.0629143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Vici Gaming25c1,019$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.014445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Team Yandex79c1,013$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.6612060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Vici Gaming12c1,005$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.637745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Vici Gaming20c1,001$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7450749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Team Yandex74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26059254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked Vici Gaming14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14016139.8%64 W · 97 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Vici Gaming28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28041351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Vici Gaming29c999.99$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28549644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Vici Gaming28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28037047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Yandex75c990.48$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.5953758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Vici Gaming31c967.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30048054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Team Yandex76c951.93$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.4612966.7%86 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Vici Gaming31c851$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.6935151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Vici Gaming5c839$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.531,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Team Yandex74c820$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21532445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Vici Gaming25c817.54$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3935737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Vici Gaming24c780$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.277941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed Vici Gaming20c770.96$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6120233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.