TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Tomas Etcheverry

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Etcheverryof Kecmanovic, Etcheverry
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,106 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Kecmanovic41c8,822$3,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,644.668,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3905…82fcbacked Etcheverry71c8,252$5,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,387.875563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kecmanovic41c8,231$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,359.911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Etcheverry59c8,000$4,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,279.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Etcheverry78c6,367$4,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.6858639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Kecmanovic36c5,982$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.752,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c7…4078backed Kecmanovic46c5,059$2,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Etcheverry55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25043051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kecmanovic42c4,831$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.952,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Etcheverry55c4,257$2,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,928.1839144.2%173 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Kecmanovic45c4,198$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.1957645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Kecmanovic46c3,820$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.284560%27 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Etcheverry59c3,766$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.493055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Etcheverry54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3809044.4%40 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kecmanovic43c2,250$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.652,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Etcheverry55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9918047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Etcheverry57c1,756$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.9748851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Etcheverry61c1,476$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.011,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kecmanovic39c1,349$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.17,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Kecmanovic38c1,340$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.51,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Kecmanovic46c1,165$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.9423945.6%109 W · 130 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Etcheverry56c1,160$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.410043%43 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Kecmanovic30c1,153$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.768825%22 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-43.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Kecmanovic33c1,135$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.241,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Kecmanovic45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50032637.4%122 W · 204 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed Etcheverry62c1,061$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.142846.4%13 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Etcheverry55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45040141.9%168 W · 233 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Kecmanovic42c923.66$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.2311426.3%30 W · 84 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed Kecmanovic45c890$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.511843.2%51 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Kecmanovic32c693.99$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.795457.4%31 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Etcheverry38c686.49$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.499134.1%31 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Kecmanovic45c667$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.1547639.1%186 W · 290 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Kecmanovic32c583.65$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9619023.2%44 W · 146 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Kecmanovic45c568.71$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.9296035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f91…40adbacked Etcheverry54c560.51$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.41145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kecmanovic33c506.75$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.66,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Etcheverry61c492.46$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.4663247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Etcheverry54c486$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.567,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Etcheverry52c475$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.272,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Etcheverry55c460.46$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.5135032.3%113 W · 237 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kecmanovic43c459.61$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1988455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Etcheverry28c450$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32447057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Kecmanovic45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20078152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cc…55a0backed Kecmanovic45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Kecmanovic44c443.96$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3422344.8%100 W · 123 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88d5…4af2backed Etcheverry54c419.78$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.11428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-58.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Etcheverry56c410.73$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7314259.2%84 W · 58 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5b3…7c36backed Kecmanovic10c399.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Etcheverry60c373.33$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.812,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Etcheverry55c360.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7119846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kecmanovic43c349.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.527944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Kecmanovic42c347.97$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.477041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf736…1406backed Kecmanovic36c334.86$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.73650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Etcheverry56c267.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0211046.4%51 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Kecmanovic59c257$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.639744.3%43 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Etcheverry55c248$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.618548.1%89 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked Kecmanovic38c223.94$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.146043.3%26 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Kecmanovic44c207.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.865350.9%27 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Etcheverry58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8416133.5%54 W · 107 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cc…b660backed Kecmanovic47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947017.1%12 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Kecmanovic7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141368.1%11 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Etcheverry55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9026247.7%125 W · 137 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1e…230abacked Etcheverry28c200$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14331819.2%61 W · 257 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd61…0002backed Kecmanovic45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907040%28 W · 42 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Kecmanovic36c182$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.26432.8%21 W · 43 L-8.6wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Kecmanovic45c180.64$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.291,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33ec…0fb5backed Etcheverry57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca39…4ed7backed Etcheverry57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4414060.7%85 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Kecmanovic11c170$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710815.7%17 W · 91 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+248.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Etcheverry58c166.74$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.032,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f3b…be48backed Kecmanovic28c163.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.92633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf32a…dea9backed Etcheverry57c133.33$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3311454.4%62 W · 52 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d3…a973backed Kecmanovic74c132.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Kecmanovic34c132$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.881,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fc…d2a7backed Etcheverry56c131.29$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.773135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Kecmanovic45c119.02$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4916144.7%72 W · 89 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Etcheverry57c115.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7951849.4%256 W · 262 L-1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8d8…1496backed Etcheverry35c115.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.143948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f42…2260backed Kecmanovic44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016158.4%94 W · 67 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fb…f935backed Kecmanovic44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506055%33 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x540f…cf12backed Kecmanovic45c113.38$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.022646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Kecmanovic46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012846.9%60 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked Kecmanovic47c107.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.753444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Kecmanovic44c106.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.031,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Kecmanovic23c104$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9214940.9%61 W · 88 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Kecmanovic24c102.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.518549.4%42 W · 43 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Kecmanovic45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455425.9%14 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-36.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Kecmanovic45c98.18$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1823847.1%112 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Kecmanovic45c94.62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5813653.7%73 W · 63 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Kecmanovic53c90.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0414947.7%71 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Etcheverry55c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.525743.6%112 W · 145 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Etcheverry54c85.78$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1828139.1%110 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kecmanovic25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.31,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Kecmanovic23c75.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3928322.3%63 W · 220 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Kecmanovic47c72.7$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.125944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Etcheverry56c68.14$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9816340.5%66 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Kecmanovic44c67.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6126244.7%117 W · 145 L-15.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Etcheverry55c54.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6535730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Etcheverry63c52.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.583534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Kecmanovic43c50.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6492548.8%451 W · 474 L+20.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.