NBA · resolved market
Luke Kennard: Points O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x835bed37b96fcd75906f21c0e158dd83992499418913bbd2bef2530faa090741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Yes | 46c | 1,294$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.75 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 48c | 1,125$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.52 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed No | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.98 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 51c | 522.52$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.44 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 40c | 489.04$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.5 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…57febacked Yes | 51c | 473.63$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.43 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Yes | 52c | 470.24$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.74 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Yes | 49c | 397.45$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.75 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4733…0623backed Yes | 48c | 297.82$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 48c | 251.19$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 53c | 211.29$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 51c | 173.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 47c | 100.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed No | 53c | 88.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 51c | 75.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Yes | 54c | 70.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 48c | 70.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 52c | 64.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed Yes | 49c | 64.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…fd45backed Yes | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…8f62backed Yes | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Yes | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…17d5backed Yes | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…34ffbacked Yes | 49c | 39.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…776fbacked No | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 47c | 35.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 51c | 31.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 49c | 26.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 53c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 14.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Lakers won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Lakers vs. RocketsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.