TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Lakersof Rockets, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,190 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Lakers51c6,000$3,060 inWon+$2,939.9732846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Rockets48c5,000$2,400 inLost-$2,40066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Lakers52c4,856$2,525 inWon+$2,331.4536954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Rockets53c4,215$2,234 inLost-$2,233.5312056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Rockets49c3,772$1,848 inLost-$1,848.192842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lakers53c3,118$1,653 inWon+$1,465.573,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Lakers47c2,923$1,374 inWon+$1,549.1911864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Rockets48c2,037$973 inLost-$973.274663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Lakers47c839.93$395 inWon+$445.1629243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lakers51c300$153 inWon+$1471,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Lakers47c185.4$87 inWon+$98.268545.9%39 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Rockets49c118.7$58 inLost-$58.1693145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lakers49c95.02$47 inWon+$48.352,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x202f…7b58backed Lakers47c82.4$39 inWon+$43.671369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+70%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Rockets47c75$35 inLost-$35.2536749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Rockets49c60$29 inLost-$29.430256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Rockets49c58.36$29 inLost-$28.629449.7%146 W · 148 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Lakers47c31.83$15 inWon+$16.8755444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Lakers49c31.2$15 inWon+$15.9887049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c1…be67backed Lakers53c31.17$17 inWon+$14.652653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8df…4b48backed Lakers53c25.27$13 inWon+$11.881118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-61.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.