NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Rockets (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe142b9cd93d9d952e253c6e8eb4fd044372d4455835f4bb0175fdd1e0d2278c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Rockets, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Rockets | 54c | 40,019$21,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,609.87 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Rockets | 53c | 40,000$21,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,999.98 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Lakers | 48c | 13,223$6,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,840.17 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lakers | 48c | 11,066$5,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,754.44 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Lakers | 47c | 10,513$4,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,571.89 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Lakers | 46c | 5,278$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.15 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…9feebacked Lakers | 46c | 5,155$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.53 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -12.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Lakers | 46c | 4,838$2,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.23 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Rockets | 54c | 4,445$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.53 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Lakers | 46c | 4,212$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Lakers | 46c | 4,110$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.51 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Lakers | 47c | 4,080$1,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.58 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Lakers | 48c | 4,037$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.07 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x639c…31e2backed Lakers | 48c | 4,037$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.07 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…5350backed Lakers | 46c | 4,009$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.98 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Lakers | 51c | 4,000$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.99 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Lakers | 46c | 3,069$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.05 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Lakers | 46c | 2,817$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.94 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Rockets | 54c | 2,200$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.98 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Rockets | 48c | 2,006$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.06 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lakers | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Rockets | 47c | 1,407$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.2 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Lakers | 46c | 1,262$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.53 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Rockets | 54c | 909.83$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.42 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Rockets | 54c | 863.88$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.5 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Lakers | 46c | 774.08$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Lakers | 46c | 676.9$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.53 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Lakers | 46c | 615.39$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.31 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Rockets | 47c | 515$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.05 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Rockets | 53c | 400$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…3edfbacked Lakers | 55c | 361.2$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Rockets | 48c | 346.75$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lakers | 47c | 339.12$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.99 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rockets | 48c | 317.12$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.87 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Lakers | 46c | 217.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Lakers | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…8860backed Lakers | 48c | 94.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Lakers | 53c | 88.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Lakers | 46c | 62.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Lakers | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 224 | 42.9%96 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Lakers | 46c | 58.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Lakers | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…231ebacked Lakers | 54c | 50.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…4389backed Rockets | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 437 | 50.1%219 W · 218 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Lakers | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Lakers | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…7de0backed Rockets | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Lakers | 46c | 39.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe127…82a2backed Lakers | 46c | 39.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Rockets | 47c | 36.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Lakers | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Lakers | 49c | 26.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Lakers | 46c | 21.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Lakers | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Lakers | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Lakers | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Lakers won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Lakers vs. RocketsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Luke Kennard: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.