World Politics · resolved market
Will AV (Green Alliance) win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83bda9d757ea1b918083066c4e88f20dc722fee92972a60fec0e7dec4fdcbf6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,499 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 67,590$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.47 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 4,343$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,795$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,778$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…f12fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,126$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,359$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,305$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 1,250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 3c | 1,196$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 3c | 985.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 5c | 969.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 786.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked Yes | 4c | 617.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Yes | 5c | 437.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 424.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 4c | 384.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 212.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…d6f0backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AV (Green Alliance) win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?this page
- Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?No won
- Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?No won
- Will COM win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?No won
- Will CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?No won
- Will LIGA win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?No won
- Will MAIS win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?No won
- Will PCC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?No won
- Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?Yes won
- Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?No won
- Will Salvación Nacional win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?No won
- Will U win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.