Champions League · resolved market
Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-07-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83c32a541c0e18f75313b2cb8abef3df4793d8523eba8d213be466bf228c5c86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 75c | 17,500$13,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,375 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…53b0backed No | 12c | 4,184$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 25c | 3,201$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.29 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 28c | 2,919$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.95 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 25c | 2,600$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 25c | 2,200$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 29c | 2,083$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.9 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 7c | 1,781$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 25c | 1,640$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.7 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 73c | 1,554$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.19 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 24c | 1,324$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.75 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Yes | 76c | 1,300$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 25c | 946.16$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.54 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked No | 25c | 918.36$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 25c | 894.3$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.1 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 25c | 784.91$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.73 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 80c | 640.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 60c | 639.94$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.83 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 30c | 611.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.58 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 25c | 497.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 9c | 486.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Yes | 71c | 414$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 25c | 390$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef84…6872backed No | 3c | 385.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked No | 28c | 378$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 142 | 38%54 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 61c | 373.77$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4481…1852backed No | 23c | 334.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Yes | 76c | 309.21$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 27c | 279$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 219.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 74c | 209$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed No | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 72c | 196.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 272 | 36.4%99 W · 173 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 70c | 195.85$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 28c | 189.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 42c | 168.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 155.76$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 74c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed No | 30c | 146.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 75c | 129$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…9b98backed Yes | 71c | 116.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 25c | 102.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f6…f092backed No | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 27c | 94.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 65c | 79.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…0d9dbacked Yes | 71c | 77.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 76.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked No | 29c | 73.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 79c | 68.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 42c | 66.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 74c | 63.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 74c | 58.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Yes | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Yes | 70c | 48.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 65c | 47.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 75c | 46.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 73c | 45.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…d5fdbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…149abacked Yes | 74c | 37.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Yes | 73c | 37.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…fc85backed Yes | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked No | 35c | 33.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…a49ebacked Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 76c | 31.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Yes | 76c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 75c | 28.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…553dbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…c118backed Yes | 76c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 70c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Yes | 71c | 18.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Yes | 69c | 18.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Yes | 70c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Yes | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Yes | 75c | 16.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…a901backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-07-14?this page
- Will FK Borac Banja Luka win on 2026-07-14?No won
- Will PFK Levski Sofia vs. FK Borac Banja Luka end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.