TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NIP vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
NIPof NIP, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96f7…d6aebacked BetBoom Team27c15,714$4,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,232.8922129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked BetBoom Team40c12,024$4,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,758.7432348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed BetBoom Team38c8,371$3,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,188.1813357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked BetBoom Team55c7,369$4,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,052.961,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked NIP61c7,120$4,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,792.821,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd0…c890backed NIP45c6,667$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,666.671838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked NIP56c5,418$3,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369.4141040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked NIP59c4,800$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.681,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed BetBoom Team38c3,610$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.8454732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed NIP61c3,447$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.9287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed NIP76c3,167$2,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed BetBoom Team46c2,400$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10411149.5%55 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked NIP57c2,202$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.011,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked NIP75c2,148$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.11,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked NIP58c2,110$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.3940253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked BetBoom Team35c1,843$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.6475245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed NIP67c1,791$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.0429449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed BetBoom Team15c1,699$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.4669445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team22c1,500$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.812,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed BetBoom Team5c1,308$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.392,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed NIP43c1,260$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.112,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked BetBoom Team57c1,200$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68475245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab1b…99e1backed BetBoom Team47c1,075$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bcd…2051backed NIP45c1,000$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.466749.3%33 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked NIP43c800$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.9535847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d7…bbf6backed NIP69c784.66$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8519468.6%133 W · 61 L+25.9wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked BetBoom Team46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32294645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed BetBoom Team56c689.98$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.3922342.2%94 W · 129 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed BetBoom Team25c628.82$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.074,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BetBoom Team30c602.85$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.982,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1f…7f94backed NIP45c602.33$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.285133.3%17 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked BetBoom Team50c601.04$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.214247.2%67 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team29c580.56$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.656,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17fe…b0cabacked NIP44c556.82$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.8215838%60 W · 98 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked NIP74c505$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.31,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…f812backed BetBoom Team34c499.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1705446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked BetBoom Team55c499.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.998149.4%40 W · 41 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed BetBoom Team19c469.91$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6855738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9bf…81c0backed NIP44c466.21$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed BetBoom Team54c462.4$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0230153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc02c…eae9backed BetBoom Team38c422.73$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.18742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BetBoom Team30c396.65$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.754,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed NIP52c394.13$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.811,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BetBoom Team51c364.08$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.074,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed BetBoom Team56c349.19$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5442651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cbc…96a6backed BetBoom Team58c346.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8532…5fafbacked NIP66c303.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6425045.2%113 W · 137 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked BetBoom Team20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019443.3%84 W · 110 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf957…bcb6backed BetBoom Team44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1325837.9%22 W · 36 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-40.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked NIP63c299.02$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.543,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed BetBoom Team41c296$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.382,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed BetBoom Team39c286.47$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4672139.7%286 W · 435 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed BetBoom Team38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked BetBoom Team36c260$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.61,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0cc…c8ddbacked BetBoom Team5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.59216.3%15 W · 77 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39a9…c69ebacked BetBoom Team37c244.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.382835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked NIP42c232.79$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.0236152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked NIP47c225.89$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.942,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaec4…8bc9backed NIP59c222.03$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.037163.4%45 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked BetBoom Team57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11439847.7%190 W · 208 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked BetBoom Team35c200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.32,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BetBoom Team39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.754,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf376…9356backed BetBoom Team16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3213342.1%56 W · 77 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed BetBoom Team25c194.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.57642.1%32 W · 44 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked BetBoom Team20c191.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4116142.9%69 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed BetBoom Team29c167.58$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.642,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bd…5f54backed BetBoom Team15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259338.7%36 W · 57 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked BetBoom Team39c165.72$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.362,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a8…b1f7backed BetBoom Team50c158.67$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6911944.5%53 W · 66 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76e8…f211backed NIP60c157.41$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.744463.6%28 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf19…8869backed NIP44c156.82$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.829034.4%31 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed NIP66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5641475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f4…5a16backed BetBoom Team24c147.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5807…74dcbacked BetBoom Team67c146.77$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9814661.6%90 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809c…ffcabacked BetBoom Team29c135.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed BetBoom Team38c131.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed BetBoom Team35c125.36$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9841260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a5…6f1fbacked BetBoom Team56c122.68$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-54.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bfa…5e79backed NIP42c110.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.925444.4%24 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1463…1dacbacked BetBoom Team27c109.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d26…f4f8backed BetBoom Team11c106.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129229.3%27 W · 65 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked NIP57c104.71$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.442,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5539…19f8backed BetBoom Team50c102.16$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.085648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f0c…a691backed BetBoom Team52c102$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0221650.5%109 W · 107 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked BetBoom Team13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed BetBoom Team25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked BetBoom Team13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311661.2%71 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked BetBoom Team28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.24146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e74…1823backed BetBoom Team41c94.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.656241.9%26 W · 36 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6e0…413fbacked NIP64c93.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.983951.3%20 W · 19 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed BetBoom Team56c89.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0114546.9%68 W · 77 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed NIP43c83.26$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4628843.1%124 W · 164 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c7…eca3backed BetBoom Team22c83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed NIP73c81.5$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1940264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xee4f…daa3backed BetBoom Team31c79.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa78e…7cbcbacked NIP64c76.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5628837.5%108 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked NIP76c75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.191,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed BetBoom Team34c73.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2561338.2%234 W · 379 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed NIP39c62.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.179033.3%30 W · 60 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed NIP62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.82,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.