TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
largadosypeladosof largadosypelados, Fake do Biru
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Fake do Biru48c5,898$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,832.985,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Fake do Biru48c3,509$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.262,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Fake do Biru1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Fake do Biru48c1,510$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.3838841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed largadosypelados50c1,078$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.761,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Fake do Biru48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Fake do Biru48c1,035$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50046555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed largadosypelados51c1,025$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.377944.3%35 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Fake do Biru20c938.43$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.031,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked largadosypelados52c925$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4465954.2%32 W · 27 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d5b…6c2abacked largadosypelados51c859.93$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.372657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9bb…1623backed Fake do Biru49c810.05$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f46…9097backed largadosypelados51c765.45$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.6910249%50 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fe…5cbfbacked largadosypelados51c764$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.432040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked largadosypelados51c758.81$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.825,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed largadosypelados52c648.62$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.3410850%54 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed Fake do Biru5c599.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30806.3%5 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-63.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked largadosypelados51c561$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.892842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed largadosypelados54c550.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.923063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked largadosypelados51c550$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.513354.9%73 W · 60 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Fake do Biru46c507.52$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.91,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Fake do Biru24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd85…1d60backed Fake do Biru44c432.13$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1320147.3%95 W · 106 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Fake do Biru47c428.34$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.992,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe4…d0f1backed largadosypelados55c417.6$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.312252.5%64 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed largadosypelados53c411.1$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.61,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed Fake do Biru50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031761.2%194 W · 123 L+22.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed largadosypelados52c331.37$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.0621545.6%98 W · 117 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfecb…5277backed largadosypelados52c330.76$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked largadosypelados55c309.67$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.0648948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d5…9727backed largadosypelados52c307.38$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.5417438.5%67 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked largadosypelados52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14491945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Fake do Biru49c299.98$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9999148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6a…681dbacked largadosypelados52c294$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.124330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc33…eb35backed largadosypelados54c292.33$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.82853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed largadosypelados79c281.5$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.682,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed largadosypelados51c277$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7313840.6%56 W · 82 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e20…e3c8backed largadosypelados52c273$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.047245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed largadosypelados52c268.79$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0233448.2%161 W · 173 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd42d…94d3backed largadosypelados55c215.58$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.586152.5%32 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b50…fd61backed largadosypelados52c215$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.22343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Fake do Biru27c207.35$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.764,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed largadosypelados53c205.05$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3729246.9%137 W · 155 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Fake do Biru7c199.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.033,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed largadosypelados51c198$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0227544%121 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed largadosypelados52c196$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0832544.3%144 W · 181 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked largadosypelados51c193.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7246447.6%221 W · 243 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed largadosypelados71c188.68$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.474,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked largadosypelados69c186.34$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.384,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed largadosypelados53c178$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2145748.1%220 W · 237 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Fake do Biru18c174.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6188330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3561…b0e7backed largadosypelados51c173.9$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.212254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked largadosypelados53c170$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.958343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2a…4fd0backed largadosypelados53c164$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.085742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed largadosypelados53c157$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2832139.9%128 W · 193 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3edb…11b8backed largadosypelados51c149.96$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.488541.2%35 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Fake do Biru49c149.09$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6728173%205 W · 76 L+21.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd09f…521abacked largadosypelados51c145.1$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.111536.5%42 W · 73 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6f4…e4cbbacked largadosypelados56c133.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.937755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked largadosypelados55c120.82$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5551252.1%267 W · 245 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf21…667bbacked largadosypelados52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.65843.1%25 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc2…a9ebbacked largadosypelados51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.656258.1%36 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b8…36ddbacked largadosypelados53c113.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.211361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed8…7559backed largadosypelados53c113.2$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.221950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked largadosypelados72c110.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.861,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad84…1897backed largadosypelados56c105.36$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3619443.3%84 W · 110 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked largadosypelados54c102.41$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.63828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Fake do Biru49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.567750.2%340 W · 337 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Fake do Biru46c99.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9936057.5%207 W · 153 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Fake do Biru20c94.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked largadosypelados80c86.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.391,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked Fake do Biru29c83.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.514854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Fake do Biru16c76.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.531,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Fake do Biru45c72.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5822447.8%107 W · 117 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13cb…36c4backed largadosypelados51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Fake do Biru48c69.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.824054.6%131 W · 109 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Fake do Biru24c69.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked largadosypelados55c69.11$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.19160.4%55 W · 36 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bb6…5154backed Fake do Biru24c67.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.939856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed Fake do Biru45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3083856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Fake do Biru45c66.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Fake do Biru48c63.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0819451.5%100 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed largadosypelados68c62.93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf7…3affbacked largadosypelados57c61.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Fake do Biru50c61.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.760954%329 W · 280 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x234e…1160backed Fake do Biru45c59.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2741437%153 W · 261 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…0747backed largadosypelados51c58.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.736346%29 W · 34 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eba…cb3dbacked largadosypelados51c58.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7317067.6%115 W · 55 L+14.0wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked largadosypelados52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6925554.5%139 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ca…da6dbacked Fake do Biru30c55.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9107…75e0backed Fake do Biru36c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.86924.6%17 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked largadosypelados63c52.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.052,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Fake do Biru50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525643.4%111 W · 145 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked largadosypelados56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2226448.1%127 W · 137 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa574…4596backed largadosypelados52c48.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.123458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed largadosypelados54c42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3266436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed largadosypelados53c40.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1522942.8%98 W · 131 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe07b…b7c9backed largadosypelados70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1214447.9%69 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked largadosypelados52c39.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.787360.3%44 W · 29 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28ac…2fb7backed largadosypelados75c38.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6917866.3%118 W · 60 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.