WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x865db2bf0f31291fd81bb841aaa55c3c1e77958276f65de2f34156690e9dd7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden State Valkyriesof Golden State Valkyries, Washington Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Washington Mystics | 16c | 2,281$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 1,142$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.83 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics | 46c | 1,025$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.63 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…f23cbacked Washington Mystics | 37c | 593.44$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 68c | 445.97$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.59 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 371.02$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.03 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 266.8$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.39 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a806backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 253.57$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 79c | 244.49$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 196.47$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 73c | 153.23$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Washington Mystics | 45c | 131.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Washington Mystics | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 118.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Washington Mystics | 39c | 98.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 98.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 67c | 72.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Golden State Valkyries | 67c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Golden State Valkyries | 68c | 72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Golden State Valkyries | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Golden State Valkyries | 62c | 67.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Golden State Valkyries | 62c | 64.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Washington Mystics | 40c | 45.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Washington Mystics | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…87b1backed Golden State Valkyries | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Golden State Valkyries | 58c | 17.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5)this page
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Washington MysticsGolden State Valkyries won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 154.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 155.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 156.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 157.5Under won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 158.5Under won
- Sonia Citron: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.