NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87bfb42c376ac4a2d136ca5032fa7709bd47ad947954d9f91ff71caba9f12b57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 49c | 5,781$2,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,830.37 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,049$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 52c | 1,912$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 55c | 1,364$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.64 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Under | 49c | 1,225$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.55 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 1,213$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.26 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 855.03$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.96 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 51c | 631.35$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.36 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 50c | 197$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 196.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 49c | 153.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 54c | 128$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 45c | 126.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Under | 53c | 101.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…94f5backed Under | 54c | 96.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 68c | 88.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 55c | 73.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af0…1929backed Under | 55c | 72.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 56c | 60.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 57.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…8bfdbacked Under | 61c | 54.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 41c | 46.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc232…4dddbacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…73e6backed Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5this page
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spurs vs. WizardsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.