NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e545224e571e92602d98f7bb32876032c79e1bdb860d15d1d889b960ed5eb23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Spurs, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Wizards | 54c | 15,515$8,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,136.87 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Spurs | 46c | 9,121$4,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.85 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards | 53c | 9,000$4,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,229.99 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a9…37babacked Spurs | 47c | 8,913$4,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,189.16 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Wizards | 53c | 8,392$4,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,944.44 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Spurs | 46c | 5,349$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.58 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Spurs | 46c | 5,349$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.31 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Wizards | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Spurs | 48c | 3,393$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.79 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Spurs | 47c | 3,149$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.26 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Spurs | 47c | 3,147$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.25 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Spurs | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Spurs | 48c | 2,859$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.32 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Spurs | 47c | 2,800$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 45c | 2,663$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 55c | 2,157$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.19 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Wizards | 53c | 1,712$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.66 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Spurs | 47c | 1,415$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.1 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Spurs | 46c | 1,401$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.54 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 47c | 1,371$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.73 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Spurs | 47c | 1,319$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Wizards | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.97 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Spurs | 47c | 1,126$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.43 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Wizards | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Spurs | 45c | 995$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.75 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Spurs | 47c | 925.53$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 213 | 55.9%119 W · 94 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Spurs | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Wizards | 53c | 648$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.56 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Spurs | 46c | 499.58$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.81 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 53c | 403.18$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.49 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Wizards | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Spurs | 47c | 243$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Spurs | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…6e6ebacked Wizards | 54c | 202$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.92 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Wizards | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Wizards | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Wizards | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Wizards | 61c | 164.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Wizards | 53c | 162$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 38c | 141.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wizards | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Spurs | 46c | 111.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Wizards | 51c | 111.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Wizards | 54c | 111.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0efe…6074backed Wizards | 63c | 109$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Spurs | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…bd4bbacked Spurs | 47c | 100.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Wizards | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Wizards | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Wizards | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Wizards | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wizards | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed Wizards | 43c | 59.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Wizards | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Spurs | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…07c7backed Spurs | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13cc…7ff2backed Wizards | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Wizards | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Wizards | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…e072backed Spurs | 47c | 39.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards | 36c | 37.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…ccfdbacked Wizards | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 173 | 53.8%93 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Wizards | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Wizards | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…8b5bbacked Wizards | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Spurs | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Spurs | 50c | 33.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Wizards | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Wizards | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Spurs | 48c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Spurs | 48c | 27.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Wizards | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Wizards | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2e…6b43backed Spurs | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)this page
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Wizards won
- Spurs vs. WizardsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.