TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Sentinels vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
KRÜ Esportsof Sentinels, KRÜ Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$212,235
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,235 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65c1…2988backed KRÜ Esports41c45,987$18,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,121.325855.4%143 W · 115 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07b1…6dfcbacked Sentinels60c30,000$17,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,849.861030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-56.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Sentinels59c25,000$14,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,75029255.8%163 W · 129 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked KRÜ Esports41c21,222$8,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,520.9718148.1%87 W · 94 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f0e…0200backed KRÜ Esports42c12,010$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,009.871963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Sentinels60c11,143$6,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,645.7119960.3%120 W · 79 L+17.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked KRÜ Esports41c9,041$3,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,339.1628742.9%123 W · 164 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed KRÜ Esports40c8,334$3,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000.394647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Sentinels36c7,500$2,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,674.651957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cd…3897backed Sentinels60c5,943$3,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,565.641435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-36.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Sentinels60c5,650$3,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3904158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Sentinels60c5,333$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20035157.3%201 W · 150 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed KRÜ Esports60c4,912$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.8340945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec8…1d07backed Sentinels45c4,443$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Sentinels33c4,400$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.1810946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Sentinels35c4,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40026838.1%102 W · 166 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed KRÜ Esports40c3,500$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.9532445.4%147 W · 177 L+51.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+39.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked KRÜ Esports40c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.996546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed KRÜ Esports71c2,978$2,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.481834.8%285 W · 533 L-61.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Sentinels60c2,858$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.853159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked KRÜ Esports66c2,798$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.2678562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Sentinels60c2,550$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5305246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed KRÜ Esports40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50032047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed KRÜ Esports38c2,500$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.9942035%147 W · 273 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed KRÜ Esports41c2,132$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.561442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed KRÜ Esports41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18052455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Sentinels62c1,823$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.1465559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd677…7579backed Sentinels60c1,725$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.992254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Sentinels1c1,613$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1360423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed KRÜ Esports67c1,581$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.8793248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed KRÜ Esports37c1,533$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.941,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Sentinels60c1,500$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89513642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Sentinels36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Sentinels59c1,384$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.5753455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Sentinels60c1,379$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.26063.3%38 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Sentinels8c1,260$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.953441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd07…8d16backed KRÜ Esports40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7503132.3%10 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Sentinels60c1,166$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.64261.9%26 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Sentinels59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Sentinels58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Sentinels61c994.04$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.8168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed KRÜ Esports34c920.61$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.89253.3%49 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed KRÜ Esports40c895$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.569046.7%42 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Sentinels59c893.58$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.0425756%144 W · 113 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Sentinels60c860.12$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.0712138.8%47 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed KRÜ Esports40c850.12$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.0727146.9%127 W · 144 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9204…7d5fbacked Sentinels66c837.4$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1602…fbb0backed Sentinels60c833.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002250%11 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e74…5972backed KRÜ Esports40c778.66$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+121.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Sentinels49c766.27$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.0928942.9%124 W · 165 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed KRÜ Esports40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4505364.2%34 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+33.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c99…8b23backed Sentinels67c747.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Sentinels60c747.3$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.3817740.1%71 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Sentinels62c742.85$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.5794361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed KRÜ Esports40c704.91$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.9528352.3%148 W · 135 L-1.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa521…d609backed Sentinels61c658$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.283464.7%22 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf83…a140backed Sentinels45c645.48$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.43966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+70.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed Sentinels60c625$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3757949.4%39 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Sentinels59c602.45$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.4525761.1%157 W · 100 L+22.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Sentinels58c599.99$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.9927145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Sentinels30c592.82$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.7754542.2%230 W · 315 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed KRÜ Esports61c577.69$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.3132462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Sentinels43c544.27$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.691353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Sentinels24c539.55$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1524250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Sentinels28c526.04$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.067540%30 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd33a…1fe2backed Sentinels62c517.57$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3232958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Sentinels58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018647.8%89 W · 97 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Sentinels44c503.03$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed KRÜ Esports40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3006642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed KRÜ Esports41c489.98$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.0918149.7%90 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Sentinels5c488.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed KRÜ Esports42c487.79$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.924858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Sentinels32c475.56$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.443727%10 W · 27 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xff6b…e45fbacked Sentinels33c465.82$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+61.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Sentinels23c437.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.191,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed KRÜ Esports79c428.97$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8749455.3%273 W · 221 L+23.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed KRÜ Esports40c400$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24012945.7%59 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sentinels58c371.54$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4919046.3%88 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Sentinels60c361.38$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8316647.6%79 W · 87 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked KRÜ Esports58c355.39$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.7439350.9%200 W · 193 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Sentinels21c333$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9446746.7%218 W · 249 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed KRÜ Esports41c315$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6493649.3%461 W · 475 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed KRÜ Esports44c309.38$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.2556551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69c0…30f9backed Sentinels35c285.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-75.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb283…4501backed KRÜ Esports68c281.5$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked KRÜ Esports40c278.12$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.878144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked Sentinels54c274.62$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.611573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.22per pick52cpaid+40.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Sentinels56c271.35$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.963834.2%13 W · 25 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Sentinels28c270.72$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.292962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked KRÜ Esports42c267.9$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.291,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6db…25c3backed KRÜ Esports37c261.48$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.023342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed KRÜ Esports67c258.65$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6923563.4%149 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Sentinels39c256.59$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7560454%326 W · 278 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed KRÜ Esports40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15023055.7%128 W · 102 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed KRÜ Esports42c250$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f2…d56fbacked Sentinels60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe041…8380backed Sentinels60c245.6$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.362744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e6d…6f31backed KRÜ Esports41c245$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.556544.6%29 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…e969backed KRÜ Esports41c244.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+58.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed KRÜ Esports41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.98259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.