TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,129 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION67c16,435$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,435.041,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Natus Vincere35c12,394$4,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,343.1719847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked PARIVISION67c10,658$7,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,561.991,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed PARIVISION65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50018351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Natus Vincere15c7,879$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.0450832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Natus Vincere31c7,000$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.9929042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Natus Vincere33c6,616$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,183.3322644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere20c6,092$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.692,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Natus Vincere35c5,236$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.6722848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere34c5,186$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.51,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Natus Vincere33c4,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed PARIVISION68c3,648$2,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.6924251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeed6…ec56backed PARIVISION76c3,154$2,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.982576%19 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Natus Vincere34c2,500$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.9915848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed PARIVISION63c1,984$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.0841351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed PARIVISION65c1,597$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.633938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Natus Vincere18c1,555$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.3312136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed PARIVISION74c1,500$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.521264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed PARIVISION68c1,400$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.9951364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed PARIVISION64c1,340$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.2347650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Natus Vincere37c1,335$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Natus Vincere33c1,200$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed PARIVISION66c1,100$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37210753.3%57 W · 50 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeefb…115abacked Natus Vincere34c1,080$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-55.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked PARIVISION69c1,072$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.9215957.2%91 W · 68 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere26c1,053$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Natus Vincere31c1,014$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.6765441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Natus Vincere31c1,000$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.7641944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed PARIVISION63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37060349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION68c999.28$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.491,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION69c983.04$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.741,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Natus Vincere2c849.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked PARIVISION67c835.43$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.444149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION76c812$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.721,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked PARIVISION67c800$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2648469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Natus Vincere33c800$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26449455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed PARIVISION66c757.57$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.5713456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed PARIVISION62c719.63$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.4651544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Natus Vincere36c628.25$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1710546.7%49 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere33c614.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere35c608.63$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8277256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Natus Vincere28c607.94$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8845750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere30c607.1$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.622,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b5…a3b5backed Natus Vincere34c595.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010934.9%38 W · 71 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Natus Vincere35c521.21$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4454246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked PARIVISION65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Natus Vincere32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16029143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere33c499.97$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere33c496.92$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.891,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Natus Vincere32c495$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.417146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Natus Vincere14c437.69$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.357735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Natus Vincere34c433.87$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14630041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed PARIVISION68c399.99$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12867555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed PARIVISION69c392$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.1656548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed PARIVISION65c384.62$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.6296245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PARIVISION80c360.7$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.131,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Natus Vincere35c346$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.113851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Natus Vincere35c337$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9535151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Natus Vincere22c334.18$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.741,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Natus Vincere28c303.74$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0520145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed PARIVISION66c300.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.922961.1%140 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed PARIVISION67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9929466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Natus Vincere35c280$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9850749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed PARIVISION65c267.57$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.651,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e6…eca0backed PARIVISION65c229.99$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.55461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed PARIVISION67c223.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8886451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere35c215$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2554753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Natus Vincere32c211.88$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.861449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed PARIVISION73c205$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Natus Vincere36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7237655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Natus Vincere36c188$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6858250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked PARIVISION69c169.56$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8766848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Natus Vincere35c161$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.356735.8%24 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2fe…695dbacked Natus Vincere32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017349.1%85 W · 88 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere33c152.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.451,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed PARIVISION65c151.52$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0358356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed PARIVISION66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5237252.7%196 W · 176 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b09…f89fbacked Natus Vincere33c150.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.74922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Natus Vincere19c150.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.112533.6%42 W · 83 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PARIVISION76c146$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.991,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d7…d801backed Natus Vincere33c121.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+42%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed PARIVISION71c112.41$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4191553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed PARIVISION69c110.6$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1916242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed PARIVISION67c110.1$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.333043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Natus Vincere32c110$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.580742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Natus Vincere25c100.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4440534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.589749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Natus Vincere23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2379343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Natus Vincere35c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.570236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Natus Vincere35c88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.841050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b79…a5a8backed Natus Vincere23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011346%52 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1863…6174backed PARIVISION65c81.8$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8730460.2%183 W · 121 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28dd…f376backed PARIVISION68c73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3613653.7%73 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Natus Vincere32c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.718544.9%83 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ea8…0491backed Natus Vincere33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.124041.3%99 W · 141 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Natus Vincere32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x381a…9179backed Natus Vincere20c62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked PARIVISION73c61.57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.871,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5521…442abacked PARIVISION66c58.62$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.931947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7be8…0f50backed PARIVISION69c58.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.164860.4%29 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.