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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: STATE vs ENCE (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
STATEof STATE, ENCE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed44…4f76backed STATE76c1,394$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.6453342.6%227 W · 306 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed ENCE7c1,326$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.81,68347%791 W · 892 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed STATE64c1,303$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.5418960.3%114 W · 75 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked ENCE45c1,224$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.473,25651.2%1,667 W · 1,589 L+89.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed STATE49c1,143$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.421,68053.2%893 W · 787 L+65.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x997f…b0f7backed STATE45c1,103$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.46944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc790…cbd2backed STATE43c1,086$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.672245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…f2d0backed ENCE48c1,055$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.314456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked ENCE49c998.55$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.412,24447.6%1,068 W · 1,176 L-4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ENCE49c761.03$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.315,13755%2,826 W · 2,311 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked ENCE6c605.04$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0537245.4%169 W · 203 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked ENCE51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020756%116 W · 91 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe36c…a856backed ENCE7c522.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510938.5%42 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked STATE49c468.98$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.1820253.5%108 W · 94 L-0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc2…a9ebbacked STATE55c449.44$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.456358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed STATE76c416.7$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.118665.1%56 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked STATE53c408.12$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.678142%34 W · 47 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed ENCE51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,20554.5%657 W · 548 L-37.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcce…c920backed STATE50c368.34$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.3418862.2%117 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked STATE54c367.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.513,31945.5%1,509 W · 1,810 L-87.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x130b…a733backed ENCE47c360$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.21650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed ENCE53c352.46$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.369671.7%499 W · 197 L+120.3wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+23.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ENCE51c349.98$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.495,91137.7%2,228 W · 3,683 L+74.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked ENCE6c347.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.671,93242.2%815 W · 1,117 L-69.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed ENCE53c340.59$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.994,26149.2%2,098 W · 2,163 L+62.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed ENCE50c297.05$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505844.8%26 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed STATE57c274$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.145,40031.5%1,699 W · 3,701 L-393.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81e3…f30abacked ENCE65c264.71$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.46633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-47.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked STATE49c259.98$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3917742.4%75 W · 102 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed ENCE45c242.86$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5276945.9%353 W · 416 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed ENCE60c242$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3954448.2%262 W · 282 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked STATE50c237.45$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7350942%214 W · 295 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed STATE50c236.38$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.566,52242.9%2,798 W · 3,724 L-80.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2167…fa33backed ENCE45c233.33$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1059548.4%46 W · 49 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd957…acd3backed STATE50c228.13$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.061546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ENCE46c224.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032,69130.7%826 W · 1,865 L-110.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed STATE69c222.67$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9816245.1%73 W · 89 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x327a…3480backed ENCE46c217.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed ENCE50c200$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9959140.4%239 W · 352 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked STATE55c194.77$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.173,62429.4%1,065 W · 2,559 L-291.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked ENCE52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031452.9%166 W · 148 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ENCE53c176$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.712,42246.6%1,129 W · 1,293 L-56.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ENCE50c174.42$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.212,04853.8%1,101 W · 947 L+8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40fc…498dbacked STATE50c174.4$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.214541.4%60 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed ENCE36c166.68$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608146.9%38 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed ENCE47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.575454.6%412 W · 342 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked STATE40c141.13$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.681,45052.9%767 W · 683 L+34.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41bb…1999backed ENCE49c134.58$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.955749.1%28 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked STATE75c134$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.312,81637.6%1,060 W · 1,756 L-138.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa005…abb1backed STATE49c130.15$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.121252.4%111 W · 101 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…869ebacked STATE51c130$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.73953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9266…a9d3backed STATE55c126.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5510560%63 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0190…279fbacked STATE50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606746.3%31 W · 36 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed ENCE35c120$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.611140.5%45 W · 66 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked STATE49c116.61$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4712143.8%53 W · 68 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked STATE61c113.75$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3666862.4%417 W · 251 L+28.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked ENCE47c108.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.014,81743.4%2,091 W · 2,726 L-90.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked STATE79c95.52$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.927746.6%129 W · 148 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed STATE42c90.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.31,05139.8%418 W · 633 L+19.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ee…1f82backed ENCE46c86.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408838.6%34 W · 54 L-11.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked STATE47c85.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.452,19247.4%1,040 W · 1,152 L-59.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ff…c7a8backed STATE49c85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.61361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked ENCE48c79.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3323138.1%88 W · 143 L+1.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f1…33c4backed ENCE50c79.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed STATE49c79.43$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2654355.2%300 W · 243 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed ENCE51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x20f4…8b5ebacked ENCE51c77.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394334.9%15 W · 28 L-6.9wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-30.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed ENCE50c75.73$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8748554.6%265 W · 220 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed STATE49c74.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.256944.9%31 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d2d…b69dbacked ENCE49c71.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518259.9%109 W · 73 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7585…dcb3backed ENCE32c71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.722450%12 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed ENCE39c69.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274656.5%26 W · 20 L+7.9wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+35.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked ENCE50c67.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed ENCE50c67.66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410465.4%68 W · 36 L+12.7wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b51…cf1ebacked STATE52c67.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.454136.6%15 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f20…934fbacked ENCE51c65.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4234562.9%217 W · 128 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked ENCE64c65.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4242455.2%234 W · 190 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ENCE27c64.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.194,13250.9%2,104 W · 2,028 L+72.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d33…6715backed ENCE39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.49440.4%38 W · 56 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8195…3fedbacked ENCE26c59.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.173852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed STATE51c57.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211,95047.8%932 W · 1,018 L-50.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked STATE63c56.1$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2129538%112 W · 183 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc73a…ba42backed ENCE26c50.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.113655.9%76 W · 60 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f2…bcfdbacked STATE51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-31.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x889d…d981backed STATE55c49.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.241070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa95…5b7cbacked ENCE45c48.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.995547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1c…35c6backed ENCE50c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2422754.6%124 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912e…0eaebacked ENCE25c47.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0236734.1%125 W · 242 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed STATE42c46.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7719347.2%91 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed STATE55c45.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7515554.2%84 W · 71 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed STATE38c45.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.942,67451.9%1,388 W · 1,286 L+25.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e87…65dfbacked ENCE46c43.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30da…3e7abacked STATE49c43.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.134847.9%23 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56ac…f2eabacked ENCE58c43.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258060%48 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked ENCE31c40.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6878634%267 W · 519 L-49.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x672c…881bbacked ENCE39c40.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1612…9dedbacked STATE51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.628150.9%143 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf437…d954backed ENCE53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.23961.5%24 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed ENCE44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.650054.6%273 W · 227 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ENCE45c39.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.752,58534.6%894 W · 1,691 L-200.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.