WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs. Liberty
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eb16234e2b1fc4c57394c92a5f3582d1dc4f6da2178c4789301cd1383ab5a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Mercury, Liberty
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Liberty | 61c | 6,871$4,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,185.58 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Liberty | 31c | 4,876$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.53 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Liberty | 64c | 4,714$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Mercury | 38c | 3,184$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,988.35 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 37c | 3,048$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.53 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Liberty | 63c | 3,010$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.13 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Mercury | 37c | 3,002$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Mercury | 35c | 2,478$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mercury | 44c | 2,181$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.14 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Liberty | 65c | 1,983$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e9…e12abacked Mercury | 69c | 1,579$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Liberty | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Mercury | 37c | 1,483$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Mercury | 38c | 1,400$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Mercury | 36c | 1,313$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Mercury | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Liberty | 61c | 1,245$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.38 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Liberty | 60c | 1,179$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.99 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Mercury | 50c | 1,094$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Mercury | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Liberty | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…c434backed Mercury | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…58b3backed Liberty | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Liberty | 59c | 951.32$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury | 41c | 930.44$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.84 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…2b2cbacked Liberty | 66c | 850.2$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mercury | 37c | 828.14$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.05 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 36c | 712.96$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.29 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Mercury | 39c | 700$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Mercury | 39c | 700$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Liberty | 63c | 692.52$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.29 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f587backed Mercury | 38c | 586.51$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.51 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury | 37c | 568$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.84 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Mercury | 38c | 525.91$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.67 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Liberty | 64c | 525.28$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.18 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Mercury | 38c | 490$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Mercury | 55c | 405.49$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.66 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Mercury | 38c | 400$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…c6debacked Mercury | 41c | 399.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury | 58c | 373.09$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.9 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…b9c7backed Mercury | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Mercury | 36c | 347.62$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…f2bbbacked Liberty | 59c | 339.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…2836backed Liberty | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d2…49cebacked Mercury | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…74ccbacked Liberty | 58c | 172.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe936…8944backed Liberty | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Liberty | 61c | 158.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Mercury | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Mercury | 36c | 146.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Mercury | 42c | 118.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Mercury | 38c | 108.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Mercury | 36c | 104.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Mercury | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Liberty | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Liberty | 62c | 99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…fc7bbacked Liberty | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Liberty | 64c | 89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Mercury | 41c | 88.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…c95dbacked Liberty | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…5f7dbacked Liberty | 65c | 84.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Liberty | 34c | 80.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Liberty | 64c | 78.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Liberty | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Liberty | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Mercury | 36c | 69.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Liberty | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Mercury | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Liberty | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Liberty | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mercury | 41c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Liberty | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Mercury | 42c | 38.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28a…bcd4backed Liberty | 65c | 37.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…d9efbacked Mercury | 37c | 36.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 51cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Mercury | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Liberty | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Liberty | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…a3edbacked Liberty | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Liberty | 57c | 18.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.