TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof Team Liquid, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$265,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,577 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team54c118,573$63,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,892.171,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Team Liquid47c36,517$17,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,075.812744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Team Liquid47c20,596$9,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,680.127152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Team Liquid45c18,379$8,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,247.8813346.6%62 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Liquid46c13,245$6,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,092.7942650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed BetBoom Team53c9,999$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,699.7127645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid29c9,355$2,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,752.252,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid46c8,816$4,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,064.2189440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed BetBoom Team53c7,236$3,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,419.5433746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team Liquid45c6,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70015544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed BetBoom Team56c4,995$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,197.7329143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed BetBoom Team72c4,966$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.8214751.7%76 W · 71 L+11.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed BetBoom Team67c4,958$3,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.2556852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Team Liquid48c4,215$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.993351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Team Liquid46c4,191$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.7512630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Liquid39c4,116$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.3347046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Liquid38c3,877$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.1651751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Team Liquid25c3,714$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.4522363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Team Liquid48c3,500$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6803847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Team Liquid45c2,957$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.744143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b10…76d6backed Team Liquid46c2,877$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1711…5698backed Team Liquid46c2,873$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2432…03c9backed Team Liquid46c2,756$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c45…2160backed Team Liquid46c2,588$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Liquid45c2,546$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.5734544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team Liquid47c2,539$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.2944645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb076…3b1cbacked Team Liquid46c2,178$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Team Liquid45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9003050%15 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Liquid50c1,940$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97035062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked BetBoom Team64c1,934$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.8867043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed BetBoom Team51c1,912$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.599657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Team Liquid47c1,911$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.1423342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid46c1,782$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.891,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid30c1,672$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.971,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Liquid27c1,614$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.8636851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked Team Liquid38c1,548$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.2910618.9%20 W · 86 L-14.0wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Liquid46c1,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed BetBoom Team74c1,323$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.0662650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed BetBoom Team55c1,262$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.8341351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Team Liquid38c1,171$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.0520642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team65c1,148$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.241,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked BetBoom Team75c1,050$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.59257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Liquid28c1,027$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.0396245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb66a…800ebacked BetBoom Team68c1,022$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.212850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked BetBoom Team63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3705034%17 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed BetBoom Team55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4504035%14 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x449c…eaf5backed Team Liquid46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4605848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed BetBoom Team53c971.8$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.755749.1%28 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team65c968.35$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.272,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Liquid46c967.6$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.158744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1f…2bd0backed Team Liquid47c957$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.79837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Liquid47c943.19$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.4425549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eae…eab7backed BetBoom Team55c915$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.757100%7 W · 0 L+3.9wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+165.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5aac…ce71backed BetBoom Team56c915$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11de…164abacked BetBoom Team55c913.26$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked BetBoom Team54c900.37$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.1720367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc686…1301backed Team Liquid50c899.13$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Team Liquid43c874.5$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.578328.9%24 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed BetBoom Team74c867.48$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.2655751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Liquid46c842.57$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.0843049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x243f…97f8backed BetBoom Team55c831$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+95.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Liquid39c817.13$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.777256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed Team Liquid45c800$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6d62backed BetBoom Team55c778.4$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.284845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06dd…6521backed Team Liquid30c638.67$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Team Liquid46c631.04$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.2816641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Team Liquid45c615$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.780544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Liquid53c610.07$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.6151550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Team Liquid13c583.47$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3111150.5%56 W · 55 L+14.2wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Team Liquid24c571.39$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1351140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid44c567.9$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9780742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5df…be7cbacked Team Liquid45c535$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.659428.7%27 W · 67 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fda…0983backed BetBoom Team76c518.74$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Team Liquid41c516.91$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4413152.7%69 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe7…ca35backed Team Liquid49c501.01$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.441457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Team Liquid46c500.1$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0519643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1af0…6dd7backed Team Liquid47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+81.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed BetBoom Team53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23517146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Liquid42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21056243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96dd…ff8ebacked BetBoom Team55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Team Liquid50c485$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.57955.7%44 W · 35 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Team Liquid46c483.8$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.551553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Liquid46c483.8$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.5546240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Team Liquid28c467.88$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0118739%73 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Team Liquid49c455.02$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9614251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Liquid6c436.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0489938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Team Liquid31c431.58$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3257735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Team Liquid46c424.84$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.43425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f07…53d1backed Team Liquid47c412$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6421739.2%85 W · 132 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Team Liquid39c400$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1569964.6%64 W · 35 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid18c366.87$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbef6…48a3backed BetBoom Team53c366.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.36850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e8…0f39backed Team Liquid47c350$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed Team Liquid46c336.56$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.829341.9%39 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Team Liquid48c319.7$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4618952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid51c306.64$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.641,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd417…327abacked BetBoom Team63c296.7$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2710641.5%44 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20c5…7452backed Team Liquid31c293.95$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked BetBoom Team53c291.54$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0216243.2%70 W · 92 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Team Liquid46c290.28$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5321045.7%96 W · 114 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.