TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, 100 Thieves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9166…b479backed PARIVISION58c15,000$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.9710749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked 100 Thieves42c11,770$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00032348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed 100 Thieves50c9,901$4,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,950.6381843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc6…315dbacked PARIVISION50c9,700$4,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,850.571546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed 100 Thieves42c6,380$2,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6837943%34 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked 100 Thieves40c5,216$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.592611.5%3 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-68.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed PARIVISION58c5,166$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.726560%39 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd63…050fbacked 100 Thieves28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4003050%15 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 100 Thieves27c4,419$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.252,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed PARIVISION72c4,165$2,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.532,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked 100 Thieves44c3,302$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.4816946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5997…0beebacked 100 Thieves42c3,150$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3231741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed PARIVISION57c2,906$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.5821854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 100 Thieves48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76fc…d3adbacked 100 Thieves42c2,369$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked 100 Thieves52c2,354$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.7259839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed PARIVISION65c2,298$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.226075%195 W · 65 L+23.6wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked PARIVISION64c2,283$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.8166446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x568b…4727backed PARIVISION57c1,873$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.362864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed PARIVISION57c1,739$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.683661.1%22 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked PARIVISION59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.9217967.6%121 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd47c…39b5backed 100 Thieves54c1,679$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9005054%27 W · 23 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+25.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6cb6…d647backed PARIVISION58c1,603$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.774266.7%28 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked 100 Thieves20c1,587$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32052837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked PARIVISION58c1,520$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.4632552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed 100 Thieves40c1,500$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.82,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PARIVISION48c1,492$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.692,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe45a…2399backed 100 Thieves41c1,467$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.895446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed PARIVISION58c1,380$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.0745646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed 100 Thieves37c1,358$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.6840264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed 100 Thieves42c1,301$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.4218736.4%68 W · 119 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed 100 Thieves42c1,296$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.5864552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked PARIVISION55c1,211$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.0447147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed PARIVISION58c1,122$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.062,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed 100 Thieves42c1,085$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.77234.7%25 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x621c…ae1bbacked PARIVISION57c1,080$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.35771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked PARIVISION59c1,053$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.5546165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed PARIVISION58c1,011$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.6224262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 100 Thieves43c1,004$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.691,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed PARIVISION58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42030153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed PARIVISION51c999.99$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49016949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked 100 Thieves41c999.99$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41011650%58 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbaf…2a03backed 100 Thieves45c999.98$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9911341.6%47 W · 66 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed 100 Thieves36c999.91$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.9716749.1%82 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed 100 Thieves41c983.87$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.3961034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked PARIVISION76c971.2$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.0913315.8%21 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed PARIVISION65c940.01$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32987047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d2…4850backed 100 Thieves43c918.69$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed 100 Thieves41c900$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36916633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd00b…8897backed 100 Thieves27c888.89$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2405151%26 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked PARIVISION65c888.05$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.0775245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc865…2f6ebacked PARIVISION58c862$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.045425.9%14 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked PARIVISION47c850.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.2981751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed PARIVISION54c850$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39136645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked 100 Thieves49c823.18$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed PARIVISION57c783$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.341,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…cd4fbacked 100 Thieves9c764.22$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.91625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfe9…4a83backed 100 Thieves32c756.64$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.538134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7de0…7429backed PARIVISION62c739.85$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.4910556.2%59 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed65…178cbacked 100 Thieves42c720$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed PARIVISION59c704.07$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.6727961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed PARIVISION58c700$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29421055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfb5…480abacked 100 Thieves29c662.47$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.081637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed 100 Thieves42c618.85$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9275450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PARIVISION66c615.99$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.325,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bb1…eac3backed PARIVISION57c599.99$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2586544.6%29 W · 36 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4adf…d623backed PARIVISION59c593.22$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.226173.8%45 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8532…5fafbacked PARIVISION59c564.41$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.4125045.2%113 W · 137 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed 100 Thieves35c545$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9135054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked PARIVISION53c522.82$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.316749.3%33 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked PARIVISION58c506.38$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.992,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION68c502.44$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.531,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d7…bbf6backed 100 Thieves44c501.92$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5319468.6%133 W · 61 L+25.9wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed PARIVISION61c484.57$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.957065.7%46 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9369…a94cbacked 100 Thieves27c444.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed PARIVISION76c439.63$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9722365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed 100 Thieves23c430.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026624.4%65 W · 201 L-26.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed PARIVISION64c423.97$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.936354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf221…649fbacked 100 Thieves37c405.19$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1491631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-52.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbbe7…121bbacked PARIVISION74c400$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10615655.1%86 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed 100 Thieves45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed 100 Thieves35c399.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405463%34 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked PARIVISION51c373.53$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.132850%14 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 100 Thieves40c370.94$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.594,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed 100 Thieves27c370.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed 100 Thieves29c364$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.145028%14 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked 100 Thieves31c352.6$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.792,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked 100 Thieves42c345.24$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14525846.1%119 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa817…1c3bbacked PARIVISION58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.839947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed 100 Thieves28c325.04$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.436942%29 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed 100 Thieves9c316$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4412118.2%22 W · 99 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed 100 Thieves26c305.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4869445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed 100 Thieves42c303$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2636446.7%170 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed 100 Thieves20c300.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.039033.3%30 W · 60 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3835…bcacbacked 100 Thieves39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked PARIVISION68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.131,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked PARIVISION59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1236560%39 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed 100 Thieves41c299.98$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9955941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked PARIVISION56c296.46$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.873,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb517…06ddbacked PARIVISION55c293.06$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.886266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.