TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,663
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,481

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,663 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa579…aad0backed Yes5c14,699$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.268610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes1c13,950$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.69673%2 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes18c10,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8002166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes5c7,391$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.911315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes2c6,512$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1387413.5%10 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes4c6,137$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9310435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bea…7d80backed Yes30c6,055$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.254022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x006b…425cbacked Yes32c5,515$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes4c5,452$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.06440%0 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4186…9968backed Yes5c5,423$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c5,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.54769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No59c4,906$2,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.564759.6%28 W · 19 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+169.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes9c4,441$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.484531.1%14 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked No67c3,901$2,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.846336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9bf…fdedbacked Yes19c3,718$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9723…2aa6backed Yes3c3,372$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9090%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes4c3,152$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0716225.9%42 W · 120 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…9099backed Yes6c2,988$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.73150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes11c2,779$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.6513532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed No65c2,773$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.686245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes11c2,751$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.568514.1%12 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da3…8618backed Yes1c2,604$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c2,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f1…bef9backed Yes2c2,298$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.58812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-70.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10fc…9606backed No74c2,290$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.875058%29 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes3c2,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558538.8%33 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked No80c1,945$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.041154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes8c1,930$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8528126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8691…28a0backed Yes31c1,600$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.993647.2%17 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes8c1,467$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2311424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6da…07a4backed Yes8c1,427$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120170%0 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d75…c6f1backed No77c1,400$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+49.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9061…5668backed Yes15c1,396$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.49616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e62…938bbacked Yes23c1,384$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.0160%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ad2…566fbacked Yes4c1,268$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed No60c1,250$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.496056.7%34 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf2…4e24backed Yes5c1,215$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No70c1,211$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.0616743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98bf…c1d8backed Yes41c1,205$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd701…6df0backed Yes2c1,140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1989…dc24backed Yes48c1,115$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa79e…4229backed Yes9c1,109$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002119%4 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-69.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes3c1,014$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.35515.9%3 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e1…70e1backed Yes15c1,014$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3039…8a62backed Yes13c1,003$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.03478.5%4 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes50c1,002$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3407…ba74backed Yes3c1,001$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.29303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid+270.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No67c1,000$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.876053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked No50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5004753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes3c1,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.611816.1%19 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62e2…eeb4backed Yes43c996.47$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.442429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c8…5ffebacked Yes15c968.44$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.371010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8db9…2fc9backed Yes2c962.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.78160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…dd80backed Yes42c943.86$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c937.51$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.231,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x186d…77b8backed Yes17c920.13$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No71c899.99$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.228750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b1f…c40dbacked Yes4c871.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4773…c57cbacked Yes29c849.72$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24390%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d7…9b78backed No60c830.79$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.793951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No77c814.09$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6422846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9ba8…10b1backed Yes15c808.43$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes9c800$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6819829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked Yes13c800$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1044151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cef…759ebacked Yes5c781.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.83220%0 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb2…9f1bbacked Yes26c762.43$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d0…b246backed No66c741.59$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.321822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a9…379abacked Yes28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88f0…d597backed Yes13c712.49$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.31100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x694d…1b27backed Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…20a3backed Yes8c642.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes11c629.71$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4412038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x481a…adc1backed Yes3c600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-56.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed No79c600$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.216100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+82%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No77c555$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6517839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes8c554.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed No72c526.58$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.691450%7 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1975…5d7ebacked Yes23c511.93$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No80c510.82$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1635347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes17c510.65$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.036743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2390…a301backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f0…9d78backed Yes20c493.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes8c483.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6126138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe04f…6ab2backed Yes26c477.78$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae4…273cbacked Yes15c474.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2570%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c473.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No72c466.84$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8711350.4%57 W · 56 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3141…9f83backed Yes9c465.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes16c458.77$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6410861.1%66 W · 42 L+19.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No72c423.75$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.753246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b3…893ebacked Yes47c421.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004325.6%11 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed No74c400$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c25…ea9ebacked Yes3c390$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No53c379.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.2112152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes21c373.03$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.887444.6%33 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes22c360$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.49028.9%26 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x822b…4efbbacked Yes50c353.83$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes9c353.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.452384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e0b…663cbacked Yes14c350$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes16c339.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.831344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.