Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9112abc3be6967fd907003cf3b6d9d91a01ca8bceb04ab70968b62ef29ef1e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 5c | 14,699$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.26 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 13,950$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes | 5c | 7,391$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 2c | 6,512$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 4c | 6,137$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.93 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…7d80backed Yes | 30c | 6,055$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.25 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…425cbacked Yes | 32c | 5,515$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 4c | 5,452$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.06 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…9968backed Yes | 5c | 5,423$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 59c | 4,906$2,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.56 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 9c | 4,441$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.48 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked No | 67c | 3,901$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.84 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…fdedbacked Yes | 19c | 3,718$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…2aa6backed Yes | 3c | 3,372$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 4c | 3,152$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 6c | 2,988$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 11c | 2,779$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.65 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 65c | 2,773$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.68 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 11c | 2,751$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.56 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…8618backed Yes | 1c | 2,604$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…bef9backed Yes | 2c | 2,298$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9606backed No | 74c | 2,290$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.87 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 80c | 1,945$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 8c | 1,930$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 31c | 1,600$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.99 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,467$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…07a4backed Yes | 8c | 1,427$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed No | 77c | 1,400$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…5668backed Yes | 15c | 1,396$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e62…938bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,384$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad2…566fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,268$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 60c | 1,250$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.49 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…4e24backed Yes | 5c | 1,215$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 70c | 1,211$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.06 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…c1d8backed Yes | 41c | 1,205$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd701…6df0backed Yes | 2c | 1,140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1989…dc24backed Yes | 48c | 1,115$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed Yes | 9c | 1,109$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,014$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…70e1backed Yes | 15c | 1,014$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 13c | 1,003$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 50c | 1,002$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…ba74backed Yes | 3c | 1,001$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 67c | 1,000$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.87 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…eeb4backed Yes | 43c | 996.47$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.44 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c8…5ffebacked Yes | 15c | 968.44$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…2fc9backed Yes | 2c | 962.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…dd80backed Yes | 42c | 943.86$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 937.51$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.23 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…77b8backed Yes | 17c | 920.13$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 71c | 899.99$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…c40dbacked Yes | 4c | 871.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…c57cbacked Yes | 29c | 849.72$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 60c | 830.79$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.79 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 77c | 814.09$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.64 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…10b1backed Yes | 15c | 808.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 9c | 800$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…759ebacked Yes | 5c | 781.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…9f1bbacked Yes | 26c | 762.43$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…b246backed No | 66c | 741.59$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.32 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a9…379abacked Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…d597backed Yes | 13c | 712.49$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…1b27backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…20a3backed Yes | 8c | 642.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 11c | 629.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…adc1backed Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.21 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 77c | 555$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 8c | 554.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed No | 72c | 526.58$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1975…5d7ebacked Yes | 23c | 511.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 80c | 510.82$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 17c | 510.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2390…a301backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…9d78backed Yes | 20c | 493.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 8c | 483.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…6ab2backed Yes | 26c | 477.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…273cbacked Yes | 15c | 474.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 473.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 72c | 466.84$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.87 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…9f83backed Yes | 9c | 465.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 16c | 458.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 72c | 423.75$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…893ebacked Yes | 47c | 421.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c25…ea9ebacked Yes | 3c | 390$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 53c | 379.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.21 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 21c | 373.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 22c | 360$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…4efbbacked Yes | 50c | 353.83$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 353.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0b…663cbacked Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 16c | 339.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.