TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Leviatán Esportsof XLG Gaming, Leviatán Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$175,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,775 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44f…d49fbacked Leviatán Esports64c34,358$21,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,392.536150.8%31 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed XLG Gaming40c23,382$9,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,341.2124145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Leviatán Esports69c20,000$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,199.9910455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed XLG Gaming23c13,291$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.972924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed XLG Gaming30c12,313$3,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,693.8712951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed XLG Gaming3c5,080$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9560022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked XLG Gaming31c3,285$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.1226738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked XLG Gaming22c2,794$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.2268458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7657…66ccbacked Leviatán Esports78c1,722$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.32576%19 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked XLG Gaming8c1,570$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.227737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed XLG Gaming34c1,536$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.6139042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed XLG Gaming30c1,393$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.9153159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked XLG Gaming12c1,324$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7610238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked XLG Gaming27c1,294$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.8665559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed XLG Gaming1c1,247$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4710217.6%18 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Leviatán Esports60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40026450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Leviatán Esports66c945.11$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.3478162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed XLG Gaming34c914.95$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.6356357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked XLG Gaming33c887.88$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2939340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed XLG Gaming30c864$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.214938.3%57 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7452…5ccbbacked XLG Gaming8c769.85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.65128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-82.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc248…e7d3backed XLG Gaming7c757.36$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Leviatán Esports60c747$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.82454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed XLG Gaming34c742$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.466259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed XLG Gaming23c661.28$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed XLG Gaming25c609.61$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.6993049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Leviatán Esports61c554.44$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.2333942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed XLG Gaming31c524.57$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6224946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Leviatán Esports56c514.02$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.174845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked XLG Gaming37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.924544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked XLG Gaming5c499.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6470%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Leviatán Esports78c492$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.356373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdb56…2bc6backed XLG Gaming21c475.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked XLG Gaming44c457.2$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3626650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked XLG Gaming15c450.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5277744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Leviatán Esports67c449.99$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.518049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Leviatán Esports71c420.91$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.1794361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed XLG Gaming31c410.43$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.231546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked XLG Gaming27c406.98$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1515217.8%27 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2284…e326backed Leviatán Esports71c380.18$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.182638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Leviatán Esports66c375$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.514750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Leviatán Esports56c352.69$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.187044.3%31 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Leviatán Esports58c342.95$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.327050%35 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked XLG Gaming35c333.58$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8914534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed XLG Gaming39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11753442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed XLG Gaming27c268$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0629151.5%150 W · 141 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked XLG Gaming30c252.15$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6333947.8%162 W · 177 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed XLG Gaming4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022449.1%110 W · 114 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe767…9107backed Leviatán Esports70c244.29$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.296755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Leviatán Esports69c224.98$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7422455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1001…0cf1backed XLG Gaming26c223.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.11957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x119d…bec3backed XLG Gaming8c222.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Leviatán Esports61c221.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5811450%57 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Leviatán Esports64c213.58$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.897847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Leviatán Esports61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked XLG Gaming17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37db…dff4backed XLG Gaming33c197.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.738050%40 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a1…f88bbacked Leviatán Esports56c177.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.448936%32 W · 57 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Leviatán Esports55c172.02$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.411,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Leviatán Esports76c172$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5655637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed XLG Gaming35c167.43$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.526637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e82…4cfbbacked Leviatán Esports61c167.08$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.161668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed XLG Gaming13c157.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8735331.2%110 W · 243 L-29.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb7b…bfeebacked XLG Gaming33c151$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.392231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad31…1c1dbacked Leviatán Esports68c145.46$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.551861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb98a…0550backed Leviatán Esports69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked XLG Gaming28c141.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4034954.7%191 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed XLG Gaming20c136.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4918444.6%82 W · 102 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8faa…e76abacked XLG Gaming16c135.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Leviatán Esports64c134$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5896245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Leviatán Esports69c125.13$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.794252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed XLG Gaming34c117.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1136145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked Leviatán Esports66c117.97$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.111838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed XLG Gaming31c116.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2620755.6%115 W · 92 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Leviatán Esports72c116.38$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.256630.3%20 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0275…d186backed XLG Gaming18c110.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Leviatán Esports70c86.41$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9234253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…bdebbacked XLG Gaming18c85.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.455115.7%8 W · 43 L-7.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc4f8…436cbacked XLG Gaming46c80.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd28…905abacked Leviatán Esports66c80.42$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.341050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed XLG Gaming13c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.591050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f9b…bc2fbacked Leviatán Esports65c79.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked XLG Gaming21c79.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9870043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked XLG Gaming27c77.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.744650%23 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28dc…357bbacked Leviatán Esports68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed XLG Gaming31c72.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4610842.6%46 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked Leviatán Esports69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4612856.3%72 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Leviatán Esports61c71.09$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.73944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked XLG Gaming18c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.551435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf1…ffbdbacked XLG Gaming20c69.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Leviatán Esports70c69.79$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9432152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked XLG Gaming34c64.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1453355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed Leviatán Esports65c61.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5428151.6%145 W · 136 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Leviatán Esports62c58.16$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3544342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked Leviatán Esports61c52.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.419551.3%100 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e4a…a45fbacked XLG Gaming30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89cd…f197backed XLG Gaming35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54637%17 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Leviatán Esports66c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4521144.1%93 W · 118 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked Leviatán Esports59c44.04$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0418261%111 W · 71 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa78e…7cbcbacked XLG Gaming35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510942.2%46 W · 63 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.