TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Villanova Wildcats vs. Creighton Bluejays

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Villanova Wildcatsof Villanova Wildcats, Creighton Bluejays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$322,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$422,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,730 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Creighton Bluejays39c112,957$43,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,938.1569142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dbf…53bebacked Villanova Wildcats57c107,750$61,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,332.451650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Creighton Bluejays46c20,832$9,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,572.6124351.4%125 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Villanova Wildcats55c9,381$5,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,262.4312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Creighton Bluejays13c7,055$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.095,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Villanova Wildcats57c5,714$3,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.437947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Creighton Bluejays44c5,000$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.9924451.2%125 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Creighton Bluejays45c4,444$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00025556.1%143 W · 112 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Creighton Bluejays13c4,159$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.022,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Villanova Wildcats75c3,185$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.045,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Villanova Wildcats57c2,295$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.442,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Villanova Wildcats74c2,247$1,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.223,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Villanova Wildcats62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76022645.6%103 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Creighton Bluejays45c1,760$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79213746.7%64 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Villanova Wildcats70c1,610$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.231,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Creighton Bluejays28c1,568$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.2855840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Creighton Bluejays5c1,532$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.841,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff1f…d5dfbacked Villanova Wildcats56c1,148$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf7…b626backed Creighton Bluejays44c1,146$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Creighton Bluejays46c1,095$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50055749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Villanova Wildcats55c1,040$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.7830249.3%149 W · 153 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Creighton Bluejays40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40044549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Creighton Bluejays16c925.24$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.494,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked Villanova Wildcats78c918.9$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.6814151.1%72 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Creighton Bluejays18c916.74$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.684,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Villanova Wildcats57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.1923941.4%99 W · 140 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Villanova Wildcats63c801$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.379771.1%69 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Creighton Bluejays14c720$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.81,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Creighton Bluejays39c696.84$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.771,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed Creighton Bluejays45c663.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Villanova Wildcats63c640$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.837142.6%158 W · 213 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Creighton Bluejays22c622.81$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2468254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Villanova Wildcats64c562.5$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.514930.2%45 W · 104 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Creighton Bluejays44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22081453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Creighton Bluejays40c489.79$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.951,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce1…b62cbacked Villanova Wildcats56c356.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.127955.7%44 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Creighton Bluejays39c331.95$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2437441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Villanova Wildcats73c326$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.582,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf60d…761abacked Villanova Wildcats57c315$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.452544%11 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Creighton Bluejays43c315$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.452152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Villanova Wildcats53c296.33$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.281936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Creighton Bluejays29c268.56$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3577142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Creighton Bluejays40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013743.8%60 W · 77 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Villanova Wildcats57c245.61$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6145351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Villanova Wildcats59c230$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.631537.8%119 W · 196 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x796f…c23dbacked Creighton Bluejays20c225.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Creighton Bluejays11c210$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.12,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Creighton Bluejays40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Villanova Wildcats60c198$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.240755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Creighton Bluejays45c197.3$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7919848%95 W · 103 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Villanova Wildcats57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4415055.3%83 W · 67 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Creighton Bluejays17c165.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.611,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Creighton Bluejays37c163$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3150745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Villanova Wildcats61c161$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7974152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Villanova Wildcats64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2593447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Villanova Wildcats71c150.18$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.31,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Creighton Bluejays43c139.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Creighton Bluejays41c119.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.621,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93c…475ebacked Villanova Wildcats61c109.28$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Creighton Bluejays40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…eb6abacked Villanova Wildcats57c95.94$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8115733.1%52 W · 105 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Villanova Wildcats78c94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.521,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50cb…c79abacked Villanova Wildcats67c89.15$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.421921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed Villanova Wildcats58c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.611051.8%57 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Villanova Wildcats53c79$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1338343.6%167 W · 216 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Creighton Bluejays13c76.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.394036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Creighton Bluejays38c64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.321,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Creighton Bluejays25c62.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8820248%97 W · 105 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23d3…eb28backed Creighton Bluejays45c61.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Creighton Bluejays40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.993247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf876…8975backed Creighton Bluejays42c58.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Creighton Bluejays43c57.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4421651.4%111 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Creighton Bluejays32c56.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.211,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Villanova Wildcats53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.69945.5%45 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked Creighton Bluejays44c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.235650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Villanova Wildcats57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.552353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Villanova Wildcats55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.534952.1%182 W · 167 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed Villanova Wildcats63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.521449.5%106 W · 108 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Creighton Bluejays29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.564658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x195f…3442backed Creighton Bluejays45c49.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Creighton Bluejays45c47.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.219056.7%51 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Villanova Wildcats58c46.41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4123363.9%149 W · 84 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cbc…3b01backed Villanova Wildcats61c38.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.143046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2ff…0b32backed Villanova Wildcats79c38.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Creighton Bluejays44c36.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9543053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Villanova Wildcats61c36.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1699045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Villanova Wildcats60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3349849.6%247 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked Creighton Bluejays46c31.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.358452.4%44 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ee3…b171backed Villanova Wildcats57c28.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff1…e65cbacked Creighton Bluejays44c28.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.511060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x569f…4ca3backed Creighton Bluejays45c28.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b3…0757backed Villanova Wildcats58c25.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf788…5ebbbacked Creighton Bluejays43c24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.324537.8%17 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d3…09f9backed Villanova Wildcats60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83850%19 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc5…2585backed Villanova Wildcats57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.64355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e0…be18backed Villanova Wildcats57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.68664%55 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Villanova Wildcats64c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8119138.2%73 W · 118 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc31…be71backed Villanova Wildcats63c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.