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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof REKONIX, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,896 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed REKONIX33c38,261$12,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,793.231,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Nigma Galaxy64c13,000$8,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,652.4580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed REKONIX36c9,514$3,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.4624251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Nigma Galaxy78c9,124$7,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.0840051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Nigma Galaxy65c7,260$4,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.9996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Nigma Galaxy76c6,000$4,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.9951364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Nigma Galaxy71c4,046$2,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.3938855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked REKONIX18c2,691$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.971,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked REKONIX35c2,265$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.2915957.2%91 W · 68 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Nigma Galaxy71c2,090$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.6345750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed REKONIX28c1,778$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.0371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Nigma Galaxy68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed REKONIX35c1,352$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.7688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b1…cf86backed Nigma Galaxy76c1,346$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.551770.6%12 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX25c1,243$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.722,83443.6%1,236 W · 1,598 L-39.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy61c1,069$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.771,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Nigma Galaxy61c1,054$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.2269744.6%311 W · 386 L-2.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Nigma Galaxy64c1,014$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.0741944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Nigma Galaxy64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Nigma Galaxy64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Nigma Galaxy66c961.61$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.5361456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Nigma Galaxy76c915.79$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.792142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed REKONIX30c878.41$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2656527.7%18 W · 47 L-9.9wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb37…7d86backed REKONIX35c759.36$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.311266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Nigma Galaxy75c750$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked Nigma Galaxy71c716.06$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.778469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed REKONIX34c637$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8255951.9%290 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Nigma Galaxy71c600$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17474549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Nigma Galaxy73c560$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.241055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked REKONIX19c530.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed REKONIX24c499.98$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.396245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nigma Galaxy74c470.97$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7453139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Nigma Galaxy70c463.33$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13980159.1%473 W · 328 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nigma Galaxy65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14077256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Nigma Galaxy75c398.31$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3135370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy70c376$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.81,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Nigma Galaxy79c373.63$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.551,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked REKONIX26c342.23$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2356343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed REKONIX30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10072154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nigma Galaxy74c272.08$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.471,46148.5%709 W · 752 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked REKONIX27c260.67$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.385851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Nigma Galaxy71c260.1$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.775930.5%18 W · 41 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Nigma Galaxy79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.553858.7%316 W · 222 L-0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed REKONIX5c250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1292561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Nigma Galaxy74c248.27$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7714452.1%75 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed REKONIX33c237$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.211,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Nigma Galaxy70c191.55$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4758356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x263f…760dbacked REKONIX35c181.68$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.771250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9851…1320backed Nigma Galaxy76c176.02$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.84452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy72c172.51$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.711,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nigma Galaxy74c151.26$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.541,70741.2%704 W · 1,003 L-43.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ff…6465backed REKONIX35c142.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked REKONIX29c136.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4052649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nigma Galaxy69c120$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.081,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked REKONIX20c119.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2421144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Nigma Galaxy64c117.19$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1986451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed REKONIX23c117$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5120939.2%82 W · 127 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7be8…0f50backed REKONIX36c108.98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.354860.4%29 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Nigma Galaxy68c107.7$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.041,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Nigma Galaxy68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.523555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2989749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Nigma Galaxy69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3165863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed REKONIX18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830834.1%105 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Nigma Galaxy71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2968649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed REKONIX24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2450544.2%223 W · 282 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked REKONIX35c94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.989948.5%48 W · 51 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked REKONIX31c90.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0640534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Nigma Galaxy64c90.8$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6929042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked Nigma Galaxy71c84.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9530255.3%167 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed REKONIX26c81.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.381,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf0f9…aa7abacked Nigma Galaxy78c71.62$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.76966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Nigma Galaxy65c70.62$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7273554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed Nigma Galaxy75c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.531865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed REKONIX34c69.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.873743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf938…1249backed Nigma Galaxy78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.117360.7%105 W · 68 L-13.6wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-13.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed REKONIX25c60.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1546150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Nigma Galaxy69c57.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.677954.4%43 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked REKONIX28c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.416953.8%91 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ea…86cabacked Nigma Galaxy74c54.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.097751.9%40 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Nigma Galaxy70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1541244.7%184 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked REKONIX31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6528050%140 W · 140 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f95…38ffbacked REKONIX27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57850%39 W · 39 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Nigma Galaxy66c44.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1835948.2%173 W · 186 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f30…8df6backed REKONIX38c44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7216555.2%91 W · 74 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Nigma Galaxy71c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1835430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed Nigma Galaxy75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1022961.1%140 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…67b9backed REKONIX35c38.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.711163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed REKONIX34c37.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6421264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Nigma Galaxy67c35.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8435062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nigma Galaxy62c34.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.11,26349.6%627 W · 636 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Nigma Galaxy71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.715536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Nigma Galaxy71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.716837.5%63 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Nigma Galaxy62c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3949644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Nigma Galaxy64c29.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.783948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…92e1backed Nigma Galaxy74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.032450%12 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Nigma Galaxy71c26.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6739559%233 W · 162 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Nigma Galaxy67c20.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8314652.1%76 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Nigma Galaxy74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.237755.2%208 W · 169 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Nigma Galaxy72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.789238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.