TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$834,648
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$945,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $834,648 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 667 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5966…f804backed BetBoom Team60c72,288$43,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,138.213857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed BetBoom Team60c59,000$35,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,769.9810142.6%43 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed Liquid40c49,427$19,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,770.7317951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Liquid40c47,808$19,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,123.221655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Liquid35c45,151$15,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,639.6436453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Liquid40c35,166$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,999.6323145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed BetBoom Team58c32,535$18,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,664.6914051.4%72 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Liquid40c32,100$12,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,798.5241649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked BetBoom Team59c30,000$17,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,299.9576058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Liquid41c29,561$12,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,120.194639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BetBoom Team64c28,000$17,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,159.9950054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Liquid41c19,500$8,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,082.159248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Liquid27c17,400$4,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,675.691,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed BetBoom Team60c16,670$10,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,667.9919455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked Liquid5c16,544$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.5322129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Liquid40c16,287$6,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,563.3567041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Liquid41c15,710$6,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,441.2733343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Liquid40c14,228$5,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,679.3823243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked BetBoom Team68c13,310$9,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.341040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Liquid41c12,000$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,92036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45a7…1137backed Liquid42c11,910$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked Liquid43c11,390$4,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,841.698032.5%26 W · 54 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Liquid39c11,304$4,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,436.5815947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79be…b605backed BetBoom Team61c10,869$6,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,239.556245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9e…1997backed BetBoom Team59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1001283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+39.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Liquid41c8,883$3,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,637.5828538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed BetBoom Team59c8,595$5,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,523.7820448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Liquid41c7,816$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,197.7659839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed Liquid17c7,625$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.3110056%56 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked BetBoom Team69c7,449$5,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.3234559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked BetBoom Team62c7,257$4,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,766.958748.3%42 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Liquid9c6,661$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.746,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed BetBoom Team70c6,585$4,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,975.6323355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed BetBoom Team58c6,000$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52066851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Liquid38c6,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2802356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed BetBoom Team59c6,000$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,46023848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8992…ed1fbacked Liquid42c6,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5204963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+53.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5667…8ca3backed BetBoom Team59c5,513$3,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,260.342454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed BetBoom Team60c5,167$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.6737646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed BetBoom Team60c5,167$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.6748350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked BetBoom Team61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95027658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked BetBoom Team60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00017540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Liquid41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05010361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Liquid40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9978639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked BetBoom Team59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.9812956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Liquid40c4,997$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.6875450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Liquid41c4,878$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed BetBoom Team62c4,806$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.1312955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a13…4d34backed Liquid16c4,250$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.211838.1%45 W · 73 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Liquid38c4,149$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.8555043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked BetBoom Team58c4,131$2,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.0210550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Liquid41c4,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640.1764852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed BetBoom Team60c3,997$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.6685446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Liquid40c3,750$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9560248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aee…5808backed Liquid40c3,488$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7926…2d97backed Liquid32c3,460$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.1970%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Liquid11c3,290$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35053545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Liquid40c3,200$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2801,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Liquid9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27030726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed BetBoom Team60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20019055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa0…253cbacked BetBoom Team59c2,694$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.5411656.9%66 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed BetBoom Team68c2,630$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.4865546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x941f…bac9backed Liquid17c2,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4256020%12 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2fe…71d6backed BetBoom Team60c2,434$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.559048.9%44 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed BetBoom Team61c2,383$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.6135236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Liquid10c2,320$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.163,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Liquid42c2,255$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94738358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Liquid42c2,168$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.8645646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Liquid1c2,162$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.971102.7%3 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Liquid6c2,108$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6369624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Liquid41c2,104$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.4932542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Liquid6c2,038$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.932,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed BetBoom Team59c2,026$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.6617737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x790e…b82dbacked BetBoom Team68c2,011$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.043262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked BetBoom Team65c2,000$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.863,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Liquid40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80051252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BetBoom Team66c2,000$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6904,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked BetBoom Team60c1,985$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.7725261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Liquid9c1,984$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5429127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked BetBoom Team59c1,843$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.6217250.6%87 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Liquid40c1,800$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked BetBoom Team63c1,798$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.793,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BetBoom Team77c1,766$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.641,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed BetBoom Team68c1,730$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.65459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed Liquid41c1,707$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70018846.3%87 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed BetBoom Team59c1,700$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69724262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed BetBoom Team59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.921070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked BetBoom Team59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.921844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed BetBoom Team59c1,694$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.5445639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5045…914abacked BetBoom Team58c1,680$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.5110644.3%47 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb93b…4208backed Liquid40c1,671$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.424339.5%96 W · 147 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2067…7350backed BetBoom Team60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.6727657.6%159 W · 117 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed Liquid42c1,667$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed BetBoom Team60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.6740558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed BetBoom Team60c1,665$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6661656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed BetBoom Team60c1,665$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.8236450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Liquid41c1,650$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.6332548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed Liquid42c1,606$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.511061.8%68 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee4…6d32backed Liquid6c1,561$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf070…fe6bbacked Liquid13c1,532$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.