UFC · resolved market
Dana White's Contender Series: Bella Mir vs. Alex Apodaca (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b0baca53198b61b735f5562c2d4ad9d13d223b076701b9fb33ceea140b0000a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alex Apodacaof Bella Mir, Alex Apodaca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88c3…bea3backed Alex Apodaca | 52c | 15,333$8,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,300.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Bella Mir | 55c | 9,549$5,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,253.55 | 157 | 36.9%58 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…cedebacked Alex Apodaca | 27c | 9,273$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,745.29 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bella Mir | 54c | 7,189$3,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,911.35 | 360 | 48.3%174 W · 186 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Bella Mir | 54c | 4,697$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.1 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e00…ba80backed Bella Mir | 78c | 3,060$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.13 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…964abacked Alex Apodaca | 40c | 3,000$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Alex Apodaca | 25c | 2,079$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.29 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Alex Apodaca | 9c | 2,014$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.25 | 265 | 52.1%138 W · 127 L | +23.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed Alex Apodaca | 42c | 1,647$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.69 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…21edbacked Bella Mir | 60c | 1,646$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb73…1e52backed Bella Mir | 76c | 1,578$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.72 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Alex Apodaca | 33c | 1,393$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.55 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac6…6c74backed Bella Mir | 27c | 1,383$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b4…f97ebacked Alex Apodaca | 55c | 1,356$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.49 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Alex Apodaca | 59c | 1,333$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.09 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Bella Mir | 58c | 1,127$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.78 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Bella Mir | 47c | 1,099$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.5 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Alex Apodaca | 48c | 1,049$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.67 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Alex Apodaca | 53c | 1,046$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.39 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Alex Apodaca | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a93…41b2backed Bella Mir | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Alex Apodaca | 6c | 999.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.83 | 132 | 44.7%59 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Alex Apodaca | 7c | 735.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.44 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Alex Apodaca | 48c | 656.02$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.13 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Bella Mir | 47c | 564.92$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.48 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…b07cbacked Alex Apodaca | 28c | 564.72$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…c07cbacked Alex Apodaca | 6c | 561.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.73 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…6bf7backed Alex Apodaca | 7c | 526.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.19 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +78%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Alex Apodaca | 8c | 499.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.98 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…6d09backed Alex Apodaca | 17c | 476.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Alex Apodaca | 51c | 472.79$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.36 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Bella Mir | 65c | 439$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Alex Apodaca | 40c | 402.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.96 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Alex Apodaca | 13c | 400$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Bella Mir | 22c | 389.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 242 | 61.6%149 W · 93 L | +17.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…3dfabacked Alex Apodaca | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.64 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…8bfabacked Alex Apodaca | 33c | 350.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.94 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b07…78e0backed Alex Apodaca | 26c | 330.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…bedebacked Alex Apodaca | 34c | 324.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Alex Apodaca | 50c | 307.69$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.85 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…75a2backed Alex Apodaca | 49c | 304.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…196abacked Alex Apodaca | 52c | 300$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.69 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked Bella Mir | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Alex Apodaca | 6c | 269.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.61 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…7aa2backed Alex Apodaca | 6c | 268.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.85 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Alex Apodaca | 39c | 255.79$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…dbe8backed Alex Apodaca | 6c | 240.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.2 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d14…36fdbacked Alex Apodaca | 6c | 234.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Alex Apodaca | 6c | 231.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,594.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324e…8793backed Alex Apodaca | 20c | 228.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…2226backed Alex Apodaca | 9c | 224.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Bella Mir | 55c | 213.94$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Alex Apodaca | 71c | 213.53$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Bella Mir | 49c | 202.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511d…3633backed Alex Apodaca | 28c | 181.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…4699backed Alex Apodaca | 8c | 180.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Alex Apodaca | 10c | 175$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…fac0backed Alex Apodaca | 6c | 164.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +877%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Alex Apodaca | 53c | 155.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Bella Mir | 52c | 140.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Alex Apodaca | 38c | 117.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Alex Apodaca | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…1b3dbacked Bella Mir | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49ea…1c22backed Alex Apodaca | 29c | 99.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Alex Apodaca | 53c | 81.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e74…6987backed Alex Apodaca | 15c | 70.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…6fa9backed Bella Mir | 48c | 62.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1183…bacfbacked Bella Mir | 36c | 52.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f9…8619backed Alex Apodaca | 49c | 51.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…8696backed Alex Apodaca | 55c | 48.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Bella Mir | 47c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -7.0wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Alex Apodaca | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…3aecbacked Alex Apodaca | 52c | 30.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…d1f9backed Bella Mir | 61c | 24.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Bella Mir | 66c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Bella Mir | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dana White's Contender Series: Bella Mir vs. Alex Apodaca (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.