TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alex Bolt

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alex Boltof James McCabe, Alex Bolt
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,957

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,704 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked James McCabe43c11,011$4,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,709.824,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Alex Bolt61c4,351$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.9531253.2%166 W · 146 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafee…881ebacked Alex Bolt53c3,649$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.176546.2%30 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked James McCabe9c3,485$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.971,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Alex Bolt74c3,098$2,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.878,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Alex Bolt54c2,979$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.54,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Alex Bolt60c1,873$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.714,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Alex Bolt77c1,300$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.8153644.8%240 W · 296 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Alex Bolt70c1,289$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.533,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35f3…092fbacked Alex Bolt55c1,162$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.6811247.3%53 W · 59 L-11.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed James McCabe36c1,000$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.099,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed James McCabe53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008956.2%50 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alex Bolt56c799.27$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.918,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b9…9ab5backed Alex Bolt55c679.98$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.9921256.1%119 W · 93 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Alex Bolt47c648.63$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.761,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed James McCabe22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13258021.9%127 W · 453 L+2.5wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed James McCabe25c520.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030625.8%79 W · 227 L-28.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Alex Bolt50c510$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25452341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Alex Bolt66c450.9$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed James McCabe53c439.62$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23345256.2%254 W · 198 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Alex Bolt65c427.5$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.365157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ae…76c6backed Alex Bolt66c412$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.542070%14 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+32.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6797…e0e5backed Alex Bolt56c268.89$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3126263%165 W · 97 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3171…b991backed Alex Bolt57c262.84$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8433551.9%174 W · 161 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Alex Bolt48c260.94$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9491754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed James McCabe47c260.41$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0339648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked James McCabe51c256.59$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.864,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c79…ddf6backed Alex Bolt77c253.57$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3212242.6%52 W · 70 L-18.8wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-27%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed James McCabe50c251.22$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.397,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Alex Bolt61c234$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.51,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Alex Bolt50c214$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10796755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762a…ed42backed James McCabe39c205.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808544.7%38 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Alex Bolt74c202$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5230746.3%142 W · 165 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked James McCabe50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014357.3%82 W · 61 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed Alex Bolt51c196.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3835444.6%158 W · 196 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked James McCabe16c176.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.654634.4%188 W · 358 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Alex Bolt49c170$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8767848.4%328 W · 350 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Alex Bolt60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6724452.5%128 W · 116 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Alex Bolt73c158.56$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.271,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked James McCabe51c158.41$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.173,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed James McCabe38c152.58$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.921,02149.8%508 W · 513 L+42.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked James McCabe40c148.19$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2572147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b8…ff48backed Alex Bolt36c139.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1710955%60 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed James McCabe35c126.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.343144.8%193 W · 238 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Alex Bolt51c125.77$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.631,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Alex Bolt56c123.21$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2148242.5%205 W · 277 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Alex Bolt72c119.84$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.721,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed James McCabe45c117.78$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked James McCabe43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021745.2%98 W · 119 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Alex Bolt56c116.07$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0735450.8%180 W · 174 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked James McCabe45c113.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7475…fc7ebacked James McCabe38c106.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6510339.8%41 W · 62 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed James McCabe29c105.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.916,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Alex Bolt54c101.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.043,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed James McCabe38c100.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5912441.1%51 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed James McCabe51c100.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1450845.9%233 W · 275 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked James McCabe20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d8f…6dfdbacked James McCabe37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Alex Bolt47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5324051.3%123 W · 117 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked James McCabe45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,35638.3%520 W · 836 L+2.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Alex Bolt56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4441644.5%185 W · 231 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed James McCabe45c95.56$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed James McCabe52c94.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2330644.1%135 W · 171 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked James McCabe35c93.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.691,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked James McCabe44c91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0455241.3%228 W · 324 L-2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c0…22ebbacked James McCabe16c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9540527.2%110 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3443…64e9backed Alex Bolt80c87.52$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8617071.2%121 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf9…8292backed Alex Bolt51c81.84$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.158857.7%339 W · 249 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9d0…2a3abacked Alex Bolt72c81.67$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1216437.8%62 W · 102 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe302…a986backed James McCabe20c79.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8719841.9%83 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked James McCabe37c78.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1417147.4%81 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Alex Bolt58c65.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.481,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b4…403bbacked Alex Bolt49c63.27$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed James McCabe36c61.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.425,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed James McCabe42c61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.621,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked James McCabe29c59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.115,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed James McCabe45c57.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.831,02157.8%590 W · 431 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed James McCabe43c56.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5185748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Alex Bolt38c56.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0851942.6%221 W · 298 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Alex Bolt73c55.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.671,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Alex Bolt47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Alex Bolt51c49.95$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3155941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked James McCabe48c49.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.417748%85 W · 92 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5331…3672backed Alex Bolt48c49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4831347.6%149 W · 164 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c0b…c814backed James McCabe42c48.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5338459.9%230 W · 154 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b73…02c0backed Alex Bolt65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.152860.7%17 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8c…dc39backed Alex Bolt49c44.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed James McCabe48c42.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2927139.1%106 W · 165 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00c…4820backed James McCabe24c42.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.225827.6%16 W · 42 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked James McCabe47c42.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Alex Bolt48c41.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.665,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed James McCabe48c41.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe999…ec00backed Alex Bolt53c41.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.384645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a2…b515backed James McCabe50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89360.2%56 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7127…c7a2backed James McCabe42c38.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56451.6%33 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Alex Bolt56c38.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8847252.1%246 W · 226 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed James McCabe29c38.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0336757.8%212 W · 155 L+26.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Alex Bolt73c36.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed James McCabe46c36.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.491,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae63…9dcdbacked Alex Bolt55c36.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0420552.2%107 W · 98 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.