TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eternal Fireof Eternal Fire, Pcific Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$319,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$365,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,744 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Eternal Fire68c22,462$15,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,154.178162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Eternal Fire59c12,161$7,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,033.7433153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Pcific Esports30c8,549$2,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,538.475242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Pcific Esports54c7,324$3,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,954.9228955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d3…e454backed Pcific Esports33c6,992$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.95263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Pcific Esports29c6,774$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.5417353.8%93 W · 80 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Eternal Fire76c6,007$4,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.5893148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Pcific Esports57c5,416$3,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,069.1530147.2%142 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Eternal Fire62c4,881$3,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.4231153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Pcific Esports49c4,731$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.6932462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac39…95c7backed Pcific Esports23c4,134$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Eternal Fire43c4,088$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.839844.9%44 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Pcific Esports29c3,998$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.4415850%79 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Pcific Esports66c3,759$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.8394361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Pcific Esports29c3,573$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.231861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked Eternal Fire73c3,325$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.578950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Pcific Esports27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.9941734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Pcific Esports54c2,978$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.4811255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Pcific Esports1c2,911$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.11130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Pcific Esports27c2,262$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.2862156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Eternal Fire70c2,257$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.7854751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Eternal Fire32c2,187$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.868949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Pcific Esports28c2,129$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.1570043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Eternal Fire61c2,105$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.1168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Eternal Fire42c2,081$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.8932245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Pcific Esports27c1,955$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.7526050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Pcific Esports48c1,864$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.7870251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Pcific Esports17c1,819$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.6925336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1534…5b56backed Eternal Fire70c1,798$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.281747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Pcific Esports42c1,715$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.621,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Pcific Esports62c1,711$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.4965559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Pcific Esports43c1,706$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.411,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Pcific Esports55c1,683$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.6424946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Eternal Fire72c1,668$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.9818952.4%99 W · 90 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Eternal Fire69c1,631$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.8528541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed Eternal Fire62c1,618$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.933346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed Pcific Esports1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15260%0 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Pcific Esports1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15521.9%1 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7b…440fbacked Pcific Esports1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Pcific Esports1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Eternal Fire66c1,475$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.72360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Pcific Esports33c1,411$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.6342540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd5…15a8backed Eternal Fire75c1,341$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.421656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Eternal Fire34c1,313$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.9214152.5%74 W · 67 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Eternal Fire33c1,248$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.027934.2%27 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8812backed Pcific Esports76c1,200$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pcific Esports34c1,174$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.21,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01fa…cea7backed Eternal Fire50c1,167$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.541030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-48%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Eternal Fire61c1,123$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.153159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62d6…90dfbacked Eternal Fire64c1,117$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.821450%7 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pcific Esports37c1,030$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.1346326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Pcific Esports29c1,003$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.9523447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Pcific Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10630%0 W · 63 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Pcific Esports28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28028548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked Eternal Fire70c985.06$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.523850%19 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Pcific Esports53c948$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.9255152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Pcific Esports59c918$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.9726634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Pcific Esports29c840.05$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.829238%35 W · 57 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4da5…e32ebacked Eternal Fire72c819.33$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.415957.6%34 W · 25 L+10.9wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+54.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5986…73dcbacked Pcific Esports65c818.92$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed Pcific Esports17c795.51$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6218735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Pcific Esports29c765.79$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0815942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Eternal Fire71c732.74$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.1319257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Pcific Esports40c725$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.344738.3%18 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Pcific Esports29c699.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9913642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked Pcific Esports22c693.02$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.471338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pcific Esports19c692.48$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6714533.8%49 W · 96 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf481…7911backed Eternal Fire62c657.79$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.063167.7%21 W · 10 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Pcific Esports19c656.96$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.166725.4%17 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Pcific Esports30c635.92$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.624641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Eternal Fire58c589.75$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.75156.9%29 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pcific Esports27c564.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3241537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed Eternal Fire70c559.29$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.791764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa903…bcd2backed Pcific Esports34c519.57$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.532263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf133…928dbacked Pcific Esports59c509.46$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.72633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Eternal Fire47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26525347%119 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed Eternal Fire45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2753745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Pcific Esports28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404450%22 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed Eternal Fire70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Eternal Fire70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15012540.8%51 W · 74 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Pcific Esports24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12061035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Pcific Esports36c499.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddad…bce1backed Pcific Esports39c498.55$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6412656.3%71 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb1…0787backed Pcific Esports52c494$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.91844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Eternal Fire42c487.48$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.8423151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x877e…8c95backed Pcific Esports27c461.97$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.019142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed Eternal Fire66c454.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5510551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Eternal Fire46c451.83$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.991952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Eternal Fire65c451.09$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1734857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31db…c25fbacked Eternal Fire62c450.65$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.254070%28 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Eternal Fire64c450.44$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.168038.8%31 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed Eternal Fire48c450$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2355232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked Pcific Esports36c445.08$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.65040%20 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Eternal Fire39c444.73$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.5550944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Eternal Fire64c443.01$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.487565.3%49 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb520…c3d0backed Pcific Esports29c418.9$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa8…d75fbacked Pcific Esports23c414.7$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.383043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Eternal Fire51c407.2$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.8978562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Pcific Esports27c405.28$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.432240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x317f…3a7abacked Eternal Fire49c398.02$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.1714747.6%70 W · 77 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.