TailMyPicks
Market

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$498,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$599,297

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,921 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 447 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf201…527ebacked BNK FEARX38c56,507$21,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,463.141,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed BNK FEARX27c26,500$7,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,089.989534.7%33 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e27…e360backed BNK FEARX0c14,880$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed BNK FEARX35c12,340$4,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,262.7281443.5%354 W · 460 L+30.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BNK FEARX28c12,059$3,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,435.643,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed BNK FEARX25c11,064$2,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,765.9921137.4%79 W · 132 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Gen.G75c10,268$7,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,558.631153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Gen.G75c10,078$7,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,518.2217949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed BNK FEARX7c9,357$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66316050.6%81 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Gen.G56c9,199$5,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,090.4226144.1%115 W · 146 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Gen.G65c8,621$5,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.7748157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed BNK FEARX30c8,145$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.0725446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked BNK FEARX24c8,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92050040.8%204 W · 296 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked BNK FEARX11c7,577$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.5829236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked BNK FEARX25c7,500$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87566437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f0…6718backed Gen.G80c7,442$5,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.647169%49 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc1…9932backed Gen.G74c6,905$5,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,791.5611937%44 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Gen.G51c6,666$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,244.1114757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Gen.G76c6,556$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.8319150.8%97 W · 94 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Gen.G53c6,505$3,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,027.2814644.5%65 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Gen.G69c6,400$4,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.991,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Gen.G56c6,161$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,680.831,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed BNK FEARX37c6,064$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.4120438.2%78 W · 126 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Gen.G70c5,467$3,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.291,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked BNK FEARX40c4,967$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00059658.2%347 W · 249 L-29.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae64…b5debacked BNK FEARX22c4,394$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Gen.G56c4,389$2,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,913.041,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed BNK FEARX24c4,365$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.939239%153 W · 239 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Gen.G77c4,225$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.9639749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed BNK FEARX26c4,212$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.3611129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafda…0fccbacked BNK FEARX31c4,048$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.6916654.8%91 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Gen.G52c4,034$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.2555639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Gen.G75c3,943$2,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.3670462.1%437 W · 267 L-38.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Gen.G56c3,708$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.7228361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked BNK FEARX25c3,500$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.889129.7%27 W · 64 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Gen.G55c3,449$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.746237.1%23 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6271…d844backed Gen.G75c3,354$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.256100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Gen.G74c3,345$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.021,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Gen.G78c3,190$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.595757.9%33 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX20c3,118$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.551,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Gen.G80c3,023$2,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.4450770%355 W · 152 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Gen.G67c3,000$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98013946%64 W · 75 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d4d…fe4abacked Gen.G77c2,946$2,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.998359%49 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed BNK FEARX17c2,877$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.5594134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Gen.G56c2,826$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.036552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed Gen.G78c2,812$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.3625269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G79c2,783$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.431,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked BNK FEARX25c2,500$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.9944550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed BNK FEARX41c2,453$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00043151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Gen.G76c2,300$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.992,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked BNK FEARX34c2,243$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.831,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gen.G56c2,164$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.062,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9cb…bdcdbacked Gen.G72c2,158$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.9420649%101 W · 105 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Gen.G59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82082452.7%434 W · 390 L+41.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Gen.G56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88063746.5%296 W · 341 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Gen.G75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50021754.8%119 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed BNK FEARX26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52040435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Gen.G73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54079653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb326…7075backed BNK FEARX2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017410.9%19 W · 155 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Gen.G73c1,905$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.2421655.1%119 W · 97 L+0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed Gen.G74c1,896$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.2636260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed BNK FEARX53c1,891$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00037344%164 W · 209 L-16.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed BNK FEARX22c1,750$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.892,24037.3%836 W · 1,404 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed BNK FEARX30c1,685$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Gen.G55c1,609$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.2345547.7%217 W · 238 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2386…1722backed Gen.G73c1,605$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.12259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed BNK FEARX36c1,599$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.6913658.8%80 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3172…877abacked Gen.G73c1,576$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.57366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BNK FEARX47c1,505$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.231,06028.5%302 W · 758 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Gen.G61c1,500$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5801,07147.1%504 W · 567 L+2.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Gen.G75c1,476$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36996057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked BNK FEARX36c1,458$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.991,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Gen.G63c1,435$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.982,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f8c…0e0cbacked Gen.G73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.8612653.2%67 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed BNK FEARX46c1,361$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.0617744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked Gen.G74c1,341$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.4823357.1%133 W · 100 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed BNK FEARX24c1,333$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x675a…81c2backed BNK FEARX1c1,300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-69.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Gen.G62c1,300$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.9995951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Gen.G62c1,290$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48511950.4%60 W · 59 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Gen.G56c1,245$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.281,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4989…8ff0backed Gen.G75c1,225$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.2512356.9%70 W · 53 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked BNK FEARX26c1,200$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31212450%62 W · 62 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f9…6910backed Gen.G75c1,200$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2967374%54 W · 19 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed BNK FEARX30c1,167$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35013136.6%48 W · 83 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Gen.G51c1,139$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.2942050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked BNK FEARX10c1,125$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,45343.4%630 W · 823 L+106.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Gen.G67c1,123$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.011,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Gen.G67c1,123$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.4430139.5%119 W · 182 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa77…dad6backed BNK FEARX47c1,069$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e8e…58d3backed BNK FEARX34c1,068$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.251838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaef0…4806backed Gen.G74c1,064$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.042774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+39.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa7ad…4c93backed Gen.G65c1,043$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.972958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed Gen.G59c1,014$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.2948834%166 W · 322 L+25.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed Gen.G75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25020454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Gen.G51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49042924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Gen.G66c1,000$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.511,31055.8%731 W · 579 L+43.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked BNK FEARX2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202323.9%9 W · 223 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Gen.G80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001,44157.4%827 W · 614 L+35.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1c…fc18backed Gen.G72c1,000$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2829965.7%65 W · 34 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.