TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,119,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,478,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,119,079 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked BNK FEARX11c268,443$30,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,234.955955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked BNK FEARX13c191,000$24,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,829.995639.3%22 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed BNK FEARX6c89,999$5,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,366.620035%70 W · 130 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked BNK FEARX12c84,564$10,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,147.654544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed BNK FEARX3c53,085$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.838624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed BNK FEARX13c42,000$5,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,459.999534.7%33 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xafe8…5f44backed BNK FEARX1c40,356$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.71535.7%3 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-82.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked BNK FEARX14c37,977$5,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,218.481,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb0…a15cbacked BNK FEARX5c30,044$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.88853.5%3 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-87.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed BNK FEARX5c29,010$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.276854.4%37 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed BNK FEARX12c25,537$3,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,157.8439749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked BNK FEARX12c21,036$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.4721536.7%79 W · 136 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8292…f774backed BNK FEARX8c20,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53016238.9%63 W · 99 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed BNK FEARX11c17,000$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87021028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked BNK FEARX12c15,555$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.65131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcedc…7351backed BNK FEARX12c14,999$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7953…ed24backed BNK FEARX4c14,181$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.882611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-54.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed BNK FEARX8c12,625$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99919122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a14…045cbacked BNK FEARX11c12,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35026234.4%90 W · 172 L-21.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed BNK FEARX14c10,184$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.8217838.8%69 W · 109 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x512e…4f1bbacked BNK FEARX12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed BNK FEARX12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20048135.3%170 W · 311 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked BNK FEARX10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00066437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked BNK FEARX2c9,994$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8650040.8%204 W · 296 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed BNK FEARX3c9,502$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.338938.2%34 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb326…7075backed BNK FEARX0c9,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1317410.9%19 W · 155 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…a82fbacked BNK FEARX3c8,200$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked BNK FEARX2c7,302$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.939129.7%27 W · 64 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed BNK FEARX3c6,976$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.616241.4%67 W · 95 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf106…e879backed BNK FEARX11c6,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6602825%7 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab4…3cb7backed BNK FEARX3c5,553$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed BNK FEARX10c5,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55043542.5%185 W · 250 L+19.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc38d…48e3backed BNK FEARX0c5,120$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked BNK FEARX13c5,080$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.419146.1%88 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cc7…0602backed BNK FEARX12c5,063$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.282552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed BNK FEARX3c5,059$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2657945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked BNK FEARX14c5,002$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.2930421.7%66 W · 238 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7db…ee3ebacked BNK FEARX13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6503925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked BNK FEARX5c5,000$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24668049%333 W · 347 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed BNK FEARX11c4,969$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.72,24037.3%836 W · 1,404 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf25…cd94backed BNK FEARX14c4,944$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.224214.3%6 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed BNK FEARX13c4,600$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59821154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed BNK FEARX11c4,540$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.393554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed BNK FEARX2c4,452$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.521,06723.5%251 W · 816 L-76.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x180f…3cabbacked BNK FEARX2c4,225$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked BNK FEARX2c4,046$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2753640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed BNK FEARX13c4,045$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.8940232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cc5…625dbacked BNK FEARX4c4,012$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.454318.6%8 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked BNK FEARX13c4,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed BNK FEARX5c4,000$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9538837.4%145 W · 243 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BNK FEARX13c4,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201,47429%427 W · 1,047 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed BNK FEARX13c3,965$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.6118829.8%56 W · 132 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked BNK FEARX13c3,846$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005427.8%15 W · 39 L-11.1wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-41.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xbdb5…1843backed BNK FEARX2c3,719$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed BNK FEARX4c3,656$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16043539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf44…0bbdbacked BNK FEARX3c3,585$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.542642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b7…7d88backed BNK FEARX14c3,571$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.176550.8%33 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x984f…b08dbacked BNK FEARX3c3,405$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed BNK FEARX3c3,242$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4628836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked BNK FEARX13c3,200$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41610631.1%33 W · 73 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24cb…8a13backed BNK FEARX13c3,080$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed BNK FEARX13c3,080$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.444335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe989…4974backed BNK FEARX11c3,000$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.22825%7 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa77…dad6backed BNK FEARX3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed BNK FEARX13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39026246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae19…0bd3backed BNK FEARX7c2,798$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…90c0backed BNK FEARX13c2,794$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.223138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked BNK FEARX13c2,500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32544550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb855…3332backed BNK FEARX13c2,437$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3293831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ee…a524backed BNK FEARX13c2,307$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.91631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x818b…0606backed BNK FEARX4c2,287$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.432060%12 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+42.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed BNK FEARX13c2,223$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2893938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbf…f4e6backed BNK FEARX2c2,220$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.354143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked BNK FEARX8c2,214$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3417826.4%47 W · 131 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6f5f…32ccbacked BNK FEARX13c2,100$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3740…f3efbacked BNK FEARX11c2,086$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2299435.1%33 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25d7…f9c9backed BNK FEARX12c2,083$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed BNK FEARX6c2,015$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.812842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed BNK FEARX3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked BNK FEARX13c1,944$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26050242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed BNK FEARX7c1,898$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4627636.2%100 W · 176 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed BNK FEARX6c1,897$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1767931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed BNK FEARX7c1,818$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13321819.3%42 W · 176 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf139…390abacked BNK FEARX3c1,815$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.571040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x383f…1d15backed BNK FEARX4c1,683$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed BNK FEARX10c1,609$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.951,13130.1%340 W · 791 L-26.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ac…f6b4backed BNK FEARX12c1,609$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034631.2%108 W · 238 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb71e…bd5cbacked BNK FEARX12c1,598$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.381560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddad…1285backed BNK FEARX14c1,507$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4cb…001bbacked BNK FEARX3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452025%5 W · 15 L-4.2wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-64%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed BNK FEARX13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19523932.6%78 W · 161 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked BNK FEARX3c1,500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.531949.8%159 W · 160 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29df…8ebcbacked BNK FEARX13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9910133.7%34 W · 67 L-11.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe1d2…c23cbacked BNK FEARX13c1,499$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.891947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+90.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed BNK FEARX13c1,494$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.229748.5%47 W · 50 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0640…1cd6backed BNK FEARX14c1,444$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014935.6%53 W · 96 L-12.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e3…5889backed BNK FEARX14c1,429$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x791f…060ebacked BNK FEARX7c1,427$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026224.8%65 W · 197 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed BNK FEARX13c1,408$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18364943.1%280 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.