TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$548,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$664,068

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $548,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1461…30a1backed BNK FEARX8c40,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.9820438.2%78 W · 126 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed BNK FEARX1c33,460$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.8994134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Gen.G76c23,936$18,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,744.7217949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked BNK FEARX14c22,799$3,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.841,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed BNK FEARX24c18,999$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,559.829534.7%33 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked BNK FEARX26c17,870$4,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,674.9966437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed BNK FEARX25c16,319$4,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,002.3925446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Gen.G74c14,274$10,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,648.3131153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BNK FEARX26c11,693$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,068.22,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae64…b5debacked BNK FEARX10c11,292$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Gen.G75c9,637$7,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,409.2264155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Gen.G75c8,733$6,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.1519150.8%97 W · 94 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed Gen.G79c8,351$6,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.8525269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BNK FEARX22c8,000$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7903,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Gen.G78c7,647$5,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.275757.9%33 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed BNK FEARX24c6,600$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.9915829.1%46 W · 112 L-12.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Gen.G75c6,358$4,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.31,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed BNK FEARX1c5,118$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.127869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83af…4084backed BNK FEARX2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028350.5%143 W · 140 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed BNK FEARX17c4,805$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.4516050.6%81 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc1…9932backed Gen.G76c4,711$3,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.6511937%44 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked BNK FEARX29c4,648$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32728166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked BNK FEARX10c4,500$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45529236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked BNK FEARX14c4,444$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.521,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf33c…4c38backed Gen.G76c4,333$3,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.9224065%156 W · 84 L+24.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Gen.G75c4,096$3,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.986552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Gen.G77c3,907$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.970162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb326…7075backed BNK FEARX1c3,886$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8617410.9%19 W · 155 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Gen.G76c3,843$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.831,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Gen.G75c3,781$2,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.041,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G78c3,553$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.811,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Gen.G76c3,494$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.5650569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed BNK FEARX16c3,362$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.3352650.8%267 W · 259 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked BNK FEARX8c3,138$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2223751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Gen.G75c3,085$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.8326144.1%115 W · 146 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed BNK FEARX25c3,083$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.644047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed BNK FEARX25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75011129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed BNK FEARX25c2,743$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.499748.5%47 W · 50 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked BNK FEARX6c2,676$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.319129.7%27 W · 64 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed Gen.G76c2,642$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.0820454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked BNK FEARX25c2,634$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64812450%62 W · 62 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Gen.G76c2,632$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.5848353.4%258 W · 225 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed BNK FEARX20c2,534$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.111,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed BNK FEARX22c2,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55039239%153 W · 239 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked BNK FEARX24c2,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60044550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Gen.G75c2,411$1,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61233456%187 W · 147 L-15.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Gen.G73c2,343$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.41,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BNK FEARX25c2,146$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.472,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Gen.G77c2,014$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.2514644.5%65 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed BNK FEARX28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56040435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Gen.G73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54079653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…0e0cbacked Gen.G73c1,875$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.1512653.2%67 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed BNK FEARX6c1,852$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10421819.3%42 W · 176 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked BNK FEARX23c1,818$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.2150848.4%246 W · 262 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked BNK FEARX6c1,709$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.16237.1%23 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf138…c953backed BNK FEARX8c1,623$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1346339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed BNK FEARX16c1,588$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26043539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6967…7f28backed BNK FEARX10c1,573$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503318.2%6 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed BNK FEARX25c1,566$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.5118451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed BNK FEARX28c1,510$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.3539749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Gen.G73c1,500$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40513946%64 W · 75 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed BNK FEARX23c1,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Gen.G76c1,500$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.9949549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e7…ab94backed BNK FEARX27c1,481$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c4…622fbacked BNK FEARX1c1,351$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.39256.5%52 W · 40 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Gen.G75c1,342$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.6296057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6271…d844backed Gen.G75c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.336100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked Gen.G77c1,299$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.735457.9%205 W · 149 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked BNK FEARX26c1,296$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.4826645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24de…83cbbacked Gen.G74c1,255$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.385170.6%36 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed BNK FEARX24c1,250$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.992326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked BNK FEARX25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BNK FEARX24c1,197$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.21,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5392…d2ecbacked BNK FEARX7c1,084$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.859218.5%17 W · 75 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed BNK FEARX24c1,027$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.4828827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Gen.G74c1,018$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.6512763%80 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked BNK FEARX2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202323.9%9 W · 223 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6260…fed5backed Gen.G76c999.99$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24016660.8%101 W · 65 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Gen.G76c999.97$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.991,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked BNK FEARX23c999.96$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.991,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8581…e74dbacked BNK FEARX25c994.6$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.111936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee57…b2b6backed BNK FEARX2c925.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.188535.3%30 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Gen.G75c915.93$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.985160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed BNK FEARX24c820$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.81,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Gen.G75c815.99$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7512844.5%57 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4989…8ff0backed Gen.G73c810.96$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.9612356.9%70 W · 53 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked BNK FEARX24c800$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19286649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked BNK FEARX21c799.97$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.991,00949.2%496 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ea1…94dcbacked BNK FEARX25c792.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005839.7%23 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x579a…3d98backed BNK FEARX17c787.42$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed BNK FEARX26c759.36$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4356432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Gen.G76c757.3$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7513658.8%80 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed BNK FEARX26c757.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20036752%191 W · 176 L-18.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed BNK FEARX27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed BNK FEARX28c712.18$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19826453.8%142 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Gen.G75c700$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed BNK FEARX28c700$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19616639.2%65 W · 101 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7af0…509dbacked Gen.G72c700$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19625268.3%172 W · 80 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd01…d5acbacked BNK FEARX15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024858.1%144 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Gen.G74c653.17$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.3230139.5%119 W · 182 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.