Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs. Natus Vincere
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1554563ee7654b8bc2a02834533caffb2509fe528fa1e4ee9dd594f35cfc6c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 8,984$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.24 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 5,133$3,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.62 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 4,716$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.22 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…530ebacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 3,998$2,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 3,882$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.89 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 3,645$2,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.95 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 2,807$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.82 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 1,905$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.77 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0f…23b1backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 1,767$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 1,669$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.59 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…3b02backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 1,425$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.79 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 1,034$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.92 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…869dbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 953$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.39 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 908.33$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.83 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 858.6$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.78 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 840.52$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.6 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 830.27$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 674.01$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…e231backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 640$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 620$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.49 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 581.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 441.67$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 420.2$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.69 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 303.59$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 301.17$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.47 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 282.73$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.71 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 266.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 248.97$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4e…c452backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 227.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 185.2$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…30c5backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 177.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…03edbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 175.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…9decbacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 173.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 11c | 168.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 162.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 117.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 100.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…e171backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 98.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 95.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…51d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 73.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…4596backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 66.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 61.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 58.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 55.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 54.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe9…e00ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 48.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…49e4backed Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 46.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 40.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…737bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 34.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…4bebbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fd…bbcebacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…f9c9backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 18.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…7972backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.