Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa16cd953d38be2b5e8004f860bc48ef3c430ffacc227f87fdb77646ef9c4d888

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $273,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $110,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,164 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	9,999$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	7,993$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.1	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	7,925$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.95	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	5,198$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.73	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…cf99backed Yes	3c	4,784$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.08	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	4,066$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.98	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78a4…824bbacked Yes	4c	3,812$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d3…e516backed Yes	3c	3,319$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,953$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,822$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.1	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ef…8947backed Yes	4c	2,540$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.06	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e39…dfd9backed Yes	1c	2,394$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-68%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.09	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3905…16d9backed Yes	4c	2,082$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	1c	2,022$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	3c	2,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4db4…29e8backed Yes	4c	1,933$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,850$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.83	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb29d…6601backed Yes	3c	1,776$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.28	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,635$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.28	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79bc…5476backed Yes	4c	1,613$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	3c	1,597$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.27	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5234…2176backed Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b21…9a69backed Yes	4c	1,488$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	1c	1,418$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	1,320$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.11	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa5…e581backed Yes	4c	1,299$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.05	68	16.2%11 W · 57 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	5c	1,263$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	2c	1,115$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes	3c	1,095$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.86	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	1,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.61	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	3c	872.51$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc2…41bdbacked Yes	3c	751$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa1…256dbacked Yes	4c	709.39$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	625$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	623.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d3…0f43backed Yes	2c	587$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ca…52fbbacked Yes	3c	561$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a93…c89abacked Yes	5c	555.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce6…a968backed Yes	4c	526.65$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc481…52eebacked Yes	4c	523.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b1…396abacked Yes	3c	520$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fd…2040backed Yes	3c	485$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac4…1819backed Yes	4c	419.37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	94	27.7%26 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9637…eb28backed Yes	3c	404$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	4c	400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b4…76f1backed Yes	3c	399$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0c6c…0319backed Yes	4c	365.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2d…2c8cbacked Yes	4c	329.55$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	4c	313.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes	4c	304.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0206…9b1dbacked Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c3…6da2backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77e9…1a46backed Yes	4c	297.87$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-37%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x773b…640ebacked Yes	5c	200.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	61	16.4%10 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event