Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3107008d8e4cd9dcd4b00709856d6ffeecd1e4a86bf87949cdb479e18cc4203

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $275,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $113,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,196 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	12,342$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.77	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	9,736$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.47	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	8,354$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	6,685$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.04	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	5,611$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.26	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x921c…1621backed Yes	1c	5,575$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb44f…d8bbbacked Yes	1c	4,980$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	3,911$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.05	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	2,729$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.23	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e39…dfd9backed Yes	1c	2,569$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-68%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,373$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.01	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,015$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.25	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	2c	2,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,998$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,901$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.23	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,850$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.06	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,804$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0f…d9a9backed Yes	3c	1,582$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.79	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbae…405fbacked Yes	3c	1,565$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.21	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd77c…7774backed Yes	3c	1,403$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.7	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	1c	1,320$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.83	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b1…396abacked Yes	3c	1,275$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	1,262$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.66	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	3c	1,249$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.9	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes	1c	1,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9693…8c29backed Yes	3c	1,108$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec48…c1ddbacked Yes	4c	1,077$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a64…216dbacked Yes	3c	1,075$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.55	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b21…9a69backed Yes	4c	1,064$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b20…ab06backed Yes	4c	1,022$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.86	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	3cpaid	+681.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4813…f31cbacked Yes	4c	1,021$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	996.47$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.38	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…3ae6backed Yes	3c	992$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.73	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac4…1819backed Yes	3c	778.48$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	94	27.7%26 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	4c	721.6$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	3c	668.85$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x773b…640ebacked Yes	4c	559.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	16.4%10 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c3…6da2backed Yes	2c	550$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2d…2c8cbacked Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6c…0319backed Yes	3c	486.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a93…c89abacked Yes	4c	379.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	4c	378.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	4c	299.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event