Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac0fd3c77a5d4bcfc203334790e58bd7cd37e9fbe47ef8479019b0a9f348d70f

Rebuilt 25 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $342,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $155,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $342,054 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	0c	29,523$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.97	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	9,999$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	8,255$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.93	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	6,426$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.47	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	5,530$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.83	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	4,500$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ef…8947backed Yes	5c	4,435$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.49	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3637…32e3backed Yes	5c	3,687$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	6c	3,407$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.16	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…ef6cbacked Yes	3c	2,613$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.84	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e78bbacked Yes	3c	2,355$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.07	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a68…88e6backed Yes	5c	2,270$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,152$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4865…aa4ebacked Yes	3c	2,124$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,028$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.76	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	4c	2,000$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.85	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1eb…3cbfbacked Yes	5c	1,955$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbae…405fbacked Yes	5c	1,898$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,865$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.6	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e39…dfd9backed Yes	2c	1,698$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-68%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,631$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes	5c	1,500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.5	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7879…755dbacked Yes	5c	1,495$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.75	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb963…b312backed Yes	6c	1,432$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.62	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	1,421$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.73	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	4c	1,411$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.39	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	2c	1,399$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.86	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	1,289$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.49	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	1,149$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.6	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92d…bb6fbacked Yes	5c	1,003$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.14	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	5c	1,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.11	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	1,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e7e…61c0backed Yes	5c	999.98$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	97	10.3%10 W · 87 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4640…57d4backed Yes	6c	998$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.89	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb29d…6601backed Yes	6c	957$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.55	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5034…3f34backed Yes	2c	900$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	91	14.3%13 W · 78 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1c…ed69backed Yes	5c	898$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.31	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	5c	873.64$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.66	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc57…b610backed Yes	3c	862.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	3c	850$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.35	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6496…8e19backed Yes	3c	815.94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	178	17.4%31 W · 147 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42d0…e451backed Yes	5c	736$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	6c	718.89$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae8…b915backed Yes	5c	715$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.89	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0fef…fe37backed Yes	5c	678$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f7…a31abacked Yes	5c	651$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	636.11$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	4c	635$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.19	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d64…ee82backed Yes	5c	628$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc239…64a6backed Yes	2c	618.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34d…5461backed Yes	3c	617$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	69	31.9%22 W · 47 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ba…67e9backed Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	6c	500$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0206…9b1dbacked Yes	5c	499.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	5c	499.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bb5…43c8backed Yes	5c	497.23$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2d…2c8cbacked Yes	6c	490$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.26	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10c2…0aa3backed Yes	3c	487.31$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf82b…5d47backed Yes	2c	475$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefa1…5aa4backed Yes	5c	449.36$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a93…c89abacked Yes	6c	432.24$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	7c	375.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9740…2eeebacked Yes	3c	367$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.53	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf83b…4be1backed Yes	6c	361.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8325…f409backed Yes	3c	350.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa1…256dbacked Yes	6c	347.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	6c	346.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.08	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c0…6761backed Yes	3c	316.39$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	8cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	6c	299.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6c…0319backed Yes	6c	252.63$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x773b…640ebacked Yes	6c	244.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	61	16.4%10 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes	6c	229.7$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.45	87	12.6%11 W · 76 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c3…6da2backed Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc627…fb16backed Yes	6c	190.91$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event