Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13fe66e87bbf97733f97d43db02a8893d6d58d3127437d66792d5bdc5284294d

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $319,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $118,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,464 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	0c	22,838$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.49	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	7,310$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.94	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	8c	5,246$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.91	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,719$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	4,570$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.43	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	5c	4,500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	1c	4,300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	3,031$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.91	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,471$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.71	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	2,436$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.48	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,050$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.87	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,014$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.7	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	2c	1,969$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.09	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,807$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.36	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	1,801$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.12	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	1,610$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.58	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	1,566$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77e9…1a46backed Yes	9c	1,525$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.26	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-37%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes	9c	1,500$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	4c	1,245$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.6	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	3c	1,116$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.09	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e39…dfd9backed Yes	2c	1,060$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-68%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e7e…61c0backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	97	10.3%10 W · 87 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	7c	999.95$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	7c	999.95$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e50…cde3backed Yes	5c	970$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	4c	850$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	849.69$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.92	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	135	17%23 W · 112 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	9c	582.5$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	8c	577.78$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.22	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ba…67e9backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	6c	438.79$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.63	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f6…f0d9backed Yes	9c	430.62$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.16	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	3c	402.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0617…3070backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	152	12.5%19 W · 133 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac4…1819backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	94	27.7%26 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba7…8ca5backed Yes	8c	399.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…8f66backed Yes	3c	390$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bb5…43c8backed Yes	9c	389.94$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	10c	388.63$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	9c	354.4$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	3c	321.92$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	8c	303.83$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2d…2c8cbacked Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0206…9b1dbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0fc…16b5backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	104	12.5%13 W · 91 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	4c	285.7$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a93…c89abacked Yes	9c	277.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38f2…6534backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x773b…640ebacked Yes	10c	199.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	16.4%10 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5468…d4d5backed Yes	8c	196.04$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8af9…b599backed Yes	6c	183.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	8c	170$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc481…52eebacked Yes	9c	155.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c10…8ea5backed Yes	9c	130$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec3…2c88backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+43%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…bceabacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x110f…f5a9backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28e2…51c4backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d0…c191backed Yes	9c	122.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…c182backed Yes	9c	122.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10e8…fdaabacked Yes	9c	122.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x545a…bff5backed Yes	9c	122.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-66%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c3…6da2backed Yes	9c	120$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event