World Politics · resolved market
Yoon released from custody before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1d3d3f8a8040b90c6482969c6ba6592689907bd99ecc9635283dc317520a27d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $362,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 0c | 70,439$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.87 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked No | 9c | 61,920$5,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,502.82 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 11c | 23,180$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.87 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed No | 14c | 15,038$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.06 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 72c | 9,182$6,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.83 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…ef80backed No | 16c | 6,287$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.69 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139f…04d5backed No | 15c | 5,581$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…627ebacked Yes | 63c | 5,466$3,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 2c | 4,582$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716c…65cabacked Yes | 73c | 2,569$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.46 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 10c | 2,480$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.36 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…b52ebacked No | 21c | 2,408$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…5852backed No | 17c | 2,296$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 30c | 2,224$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.92 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 6c | 1,999$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 8cpaid | +854.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…ae0fbacked No | 15c | 1,771$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 19c | 1,700$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.7 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 11c | 1,556$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.86 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…f3b6backed No | 77c | 1,405$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 19c | 1,288$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 5c | 1,215$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 17c | 1,133$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…e4adbacked No | 16c | 979.29$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…3e4ebacked No | 11c | 967.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f4…5781backed Yes | 58c | 927.83$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.09 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 15c | 828$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…b018backed Yes | 25c | 823$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 80c | 750$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…3618backed No | 17c | 743.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…96b1backed No | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 18c | 578.21$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed No | 11c | 554.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 15c | 550$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 13c | 496.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 6c | 488.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 370$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…cc9fbacked Yes | 20c | 338.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 15cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed No | 75c | 309.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 289$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 67c | 259.37$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 214$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 78c | 212.81$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.57 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…07cebacked Yes | 27c | 205$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…21dabacked No | 10c | 193.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 23c | 151.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 13c | 135.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +640.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…ffd9backed No | 17c | 123.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 23c | 118$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 97.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 94.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 18c | 76.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 76c | 64.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…0aefbacked No | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…3d85backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…85f5backed No | 47c | 55.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…67e0backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…2aeebacked Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 79c | 31.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked No | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd0…612fbacked No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 77c | 13.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.