MLB · resolved market
Giants vs. Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa21af8f4e092de2933a6700d01370f871e318e07b1d1dc5b18152110869d0821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Giants, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 23c | 12,838$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,923.83 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 6c | 7,946$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.67 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 47c | 5,818$2,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.65 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 21c | 5,512$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 48c | 5,416$2,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586.87 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Marlins | 14c | 4,856$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.87 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…c953backed Giants | 52c | 3,041$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Giants | 53c | 2,050$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.5 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Giants | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Giants | 51c | 1,692$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Giants | 52c | 1,500$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.95 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Giants | 68c | 1,494$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.04 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Marlins | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.85 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Marlins | 47c | 1,278$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.56 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Marlins | 8c | 1,189$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Giants | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Giants | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Marlins | 45c | 999.97$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Giants | 55c | 900$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Marlins | 30c | 788.73$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.18 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38bc…c0a2backed Giants | 77c | 782.81$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Giants | 66c | 750.45$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.72 | 345 | 50.7%175 W · 170 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Marlins | 27c | 736.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -12.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Marlins | 3c | 727.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Giants | 52c | 667$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.16 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Giants | 54c | 649.92$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Marlins | 47c | 610.6$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.98 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Marlins | 49c | 585$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.65 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Marlins | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Giants | 56c | 464.29$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Giants | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Marlins | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Giants | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Marlins | 12c | 400$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked Giants | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Marlins | 48c | 388$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 20c | 360.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Giants | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Marlins | 44c | 292.74$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.81 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Marlins | 19c | 234.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Giants | 76c | 223.68$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Marlins | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Marlins | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Giants | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Giants | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Marlins | 44c | 148.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfc…b032backed Giants | 53c | 123$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a4…932dbacked Marlins | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Marlins | 13c | 99.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Giants | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Marlins | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 33.3%64 W · 128 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Giants | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Marlins | 46c | 83.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Marlins | 38c | 76.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 203 | 43.8%89 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Giants | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins | 45c | 71.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Marlins | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Giants | 54c | 58.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Giants | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Giants | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Marlins | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Giants | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Marlins | 33c | 41.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Giants | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Marlins | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Marlins | 27c | 38.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…87abbacked Giants | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Giants | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 152 | 56.6%86 W · 66 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e20…5e20backed Giants | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…80a4backed Marlins | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7400…c5ccbacked Giants | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Marlins | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…41dcbacked Giants | 55c | 26.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Marlins | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Giants | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…25a7backed Giants | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Giants | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.