Champions League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Páfos FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa237130c690417e2c02caf26ff0a6d1f13666a4c01936d9c70892c7cc6ffb9e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 29,146$9,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,978.74 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed Under | 62c | 22,319$13,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,481.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 73c | 6,887$5,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.49 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 33c | 6,226$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.7 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 77c | 2,600$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 65c | 2,185$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.62 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 35c | 1,346$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.92 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 69c | 1,153$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.98 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Over | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 31c | 946.42$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.39 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 31c | 806.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 70c | 605$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.55 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…8a1dbacked Under | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 419.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…7889backed Under | 69c | 393.07$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60e…6366backed Under | 69c | 389.21$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…bf5fbacked Under | 69c | 382.03$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…303bbacked Over | 32c | 379.93$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf11…4ee1backed Over | 32c | 379.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfa…f2b9backed Over | 32c | 367.63$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 34c | 320$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 69c | 319.97$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under | 64c | 245.25$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 63c | 244.56$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Under | 72c | 223.61$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 61c | 215.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 63c | 199.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…f4edbacked Under | 66c | 177.27$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 35c | 166$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 256 | 59.8%153 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 39c | 127.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Over | 26c | 96.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…bfe6backed Under | 62c | 80.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 79.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…14f0backed Under | 64c | 75.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Over | 39c | 55.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 55.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…b0a4backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 32c | 51.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 32c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 64c | 43.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Over | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Under | 63c | 40.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Under | 70c | 37.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 40c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Under | 66c | 25.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…8be2backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Páfos FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Páfos FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Páfos FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Páfos FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Páfos FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Páfos FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.