TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,476

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,386 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b5e…83f8backed Over53c25,000$13,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,749.9811656.9%66 W · 50 L+10.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under47c11,722$5,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,508.962,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c9,042$4,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,235.619,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over53c7,406$3,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,477.9866853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Under47c5,728$2,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,69224847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe451…9aeebacked Under48c5,585$2,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,680.8450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e8…081abacked Under49c5,548$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3021…483ebacked Under48c5,375$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37ca…5d22backed Under49c5,321$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,607.29425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf460…f69bbacked Under48c5,302$2,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,544.96425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79a4…5335backed Under48c5,283$2,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,535.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ff…1e20backed Under49c5,239$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,567.11425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd82…e27bbacked Under49c5,180$2,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,538.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd83f…1ba5backed Under48c5,115$2,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,455.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c08…445dbacked Over53c3,800$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,786250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x361c…b6d0backed Under47c3,800$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,78610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb996…9bb7backed Over52c2,874$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.52475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick50cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a11…e3fdbacked Under48c2,874$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.6240%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under46c2,863$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.493,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7080…0867backed Over52c2,574$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.52475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbce…57e6backed Under48c2,563$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.2440%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd936…361cbacked Over52c2,544$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d97…3795backed Under48c2,543$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.6430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8089…e57bbacked Over52c2,536$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c3…bd10backed Under48c2,532$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.3640%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6203…2099backed Under48c2,528$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.4440%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff53…785cbacked Over52c2,512$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick50cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9399…3862backed Under48c2,406$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0abc…34bcbacked Under48c2,084$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.3240%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b47…fe7ebacked Over52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9603100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fbb…e072backed Over51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd98e…3221backed Over51c1,995$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c0…4403backed Over52c1,967$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5fb…4d57backed Over51c1,957$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.93425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa286…ec1cbacked Over52c1,932$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.36450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97cf…5ec8backed Over52c1,931$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c1…d419backed Over51c1,924$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.76666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb81…706bbacked Over52c1,912$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x720c…c6a5backed Over52c1,889$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6949…b923backed Over52c1,856$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.88450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8621…5a38backed Over51c1,843$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.07475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8768…9d6bbacked Over52c1,802$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6e…ba11backed Over52c1,784$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.32425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fed…1fb4backed Over51c1,776$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8eb9backed Over52c1,756$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18f6…1999backed Over52c1,729$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.92425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4454…e4b6backed Over52c1,725$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8283100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x920b…cf1cbacked Over51c1,710$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x549e…a64cbacked Over51c1,698$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.02580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+61.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9544…2e54backed Over52c1,678$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.44580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x55c4…3d16backed Under48c1,667$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d2f…4e18backed Over52c1,660$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+58.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…7986backed Over51c1,653$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf27…c7febacked Over52c1,634$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+47.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x450c…7154backed Over51c1,621$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.29475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfe…e9d6backed Over51c1,584$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6a…b22bbacked Under48c1,551$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ee…d203backed Over51c1,527$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.23450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c8…ed9abacked Over52c1,514$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.72475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+47.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedec…d8bfbacked Over52c1,501$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac13…f415backed Over52c1,417$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5066…5eabbacked Over52c1,349$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.52450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e7f…d173backed Over52c1,342$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.16475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Under47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47011137.8%42 W · 69 L-14.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Under46c888.42$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.7717250.6%87 W · 85 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c611$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.658,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under47c600$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2821,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40da…0b85backed Under47c423.41$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1998232.9%27 W · 55 L-15.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c252$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.445,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Over58c215.52$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5218852.7%99 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x939a…2f45backed Under44c172.5$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under47c149.13$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.141,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc99…7dc1backed Over54c124.8$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.973339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06d5…0417backed Over49c121.63$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6334050.3%171 W · 169 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3502…7057backed Over58c120.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6918256.6%103 W · 79 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8f…1ee8backed Over53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.343751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over57c90.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.771,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb44a…8e18backed Over58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2112033.3%40 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Under50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407040%28 W · 42 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under44c75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Over50c74.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2313239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba87…bc76backed Over56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.437047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over58c68.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.962,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x656b…afbcbacked Under47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Under46c52.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9817949.2%88 W · 91 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc079…8881backed Under47c50.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.657753.2%41 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe054…52bdbacked Under50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over56c48.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.411,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bea…2380backed Over59c42.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.541662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c41.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.074,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under50c39.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6337665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056454.3%306 W · 258 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x974e…c090backed Over58c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.6wins+0.24per pick55cpaid+43.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over54c34.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8845651.1%233 W · 223 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Over53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.133552.8%177 W · 158 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc27f…59adbacked Over59c28.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.811250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ce…9a42backed Over57c22.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.765942.4%25 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x273c…c438backed Over59c22.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under51c22.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.283,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.