TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,618
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,072

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,618 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac0a…f89ebacked Over47c7,643$3,592 inWon+$4,050.6138251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Under53c6,604$3,500 inLost-$3,50031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over48c5,633$2,704 inWon+$2,929.163,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under52c4,000$2,080 inLost-$2,079.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c3,939$2,044 inLost-$2,044.179,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over48c3,222$1,547 inWon+$1,675.482,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Under53c1,509$800 inLost-$80065750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c853$427 inLost-$426.54,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over48c570.82$274 inWon+$296.8335749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over48c411.7$196 inWon+$215.912,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under66c335.35$222 inLost-$221.748,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde46…a7afbacked Under53c314.2$165 inLost-$1655054%27 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under53c286.07$152 inLost-$151.622,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over48c264.99$127 inWon+$137.850241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf26b…f3b8backed Over48c208.33$100 inWon+$108.3310426.9%28 W · 76 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over23c198.35$45 inWon+$153.0320638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcd6…84cdbacked Over77c172.39$133 inWon+$39.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under52c151.99$79 inLost-$79.0424946.6%116 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under52c150$78 inLost-$7841052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over47c121.75$58 inWon+$64.171,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under45c100$45 inLost-$4524955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Over55c100$55 inWon+$4511048.2%53 W · 57 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over48c82.47$40 inWon+$42.882,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Over50c64$32 inWon+$32.1619350.3%97 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Under52c60$31 inLost-$31.247948.6%233 W · 246 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under52c50.96$26 inLost-$26.542551.3%218 W · 207 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under52c50.96$26 inLost-$26.541354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9460…97d5backed Over50c50$25 inWon+$251050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over50c40$20 inWon+$2043647.9%209 W · 227 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under53c37.74$20 inLost-$2037959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Over48c32.22$15 inWon+$16.7553043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e91…3e2abacked Over50c32.22$16 inWon+$16.115339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-24.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c50…03a2backed Under54c27.78$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Under52c27$14 inLost-$14.046965.2%45 W · 24 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over50c24$12 inWon+$1237665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xcb22…82bbbacked Under50c24$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over48c22.63$11 inWon+$11.772,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x383c…d1b8backed Under79c15$12 inLost-$11.851241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick66cpaid-40.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.