TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5fb…4d57backed Under46c5,442$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,503.32425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedec…d8bfbacked Under46c5,418$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbb…e072backed Under46c5,409$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.14425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8eb9backed Under46c5,364$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x794d…5489backed Under46c5,268$2,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,423.2840%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18f6…1999backed Under46c5,027$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,312.42425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fed…1fb4backed Under46c4,984$2,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,292.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8768…9d6bbacked Under46c4,822$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x920b…cf1cbacked Under46c4,821$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.66425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d82…43eebacked Under46c4,685$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,155.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-60.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f6e…ba11backed Under46c4,421$2,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,033.66425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3e…1f01backed Under46c4,261$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.0640%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7cc…f284backed Over54c3,778$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…e9d6backed Over54c3,486$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.56450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c1…d419backed Over54c3,452$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe261…2d23backed Over54c3,421$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.66425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd805…960abacked Over54c3,312$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd98e…3221backed Over54c3,061$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6949…b923backed Over54c2,572$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.12450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under41c2,568$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.753,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cf…5ec8backed Over54c2,038$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe952…bde4backed Over52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9603461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2ee…d203backed Over54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under37c1,981$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.4383039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf27…c7febacked Over54c1,973$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+47.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x720c…c6a5backed Over54c1,942$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f06…0f5ebacked Over54c1,865$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb81…706bbacked Over54c1,864$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x276d…b208backed Under46c1,863$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.98520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-70.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd82…e27bbacked Over54c1,830$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c0…4403backed Over54c1,818$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4454…e4b6backed Over54c1,791$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39ad…c945backed Over54c1,745$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c8…ed9abacked Over54c1,742$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+47.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x964c…4745backed Under46c1,712$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd83f…1ba5backed Over54c1,685$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8621…5a38backed Over54c1,658$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.68475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over54c1,641$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.148,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…7986backed Over54c1,579$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.343100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb54a…f62dbacked Over54c1,567$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.82560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf460…f69bbacked Over54c1,527$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.42425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4604…aaa7backed Under46c1,523$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.58540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d2f…4e18backed Over54c1,421$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+58.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe451…9aeebacked Over54c1,352$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.92450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79a4…5335backed Over54c1,262$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over60c1,245$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4982,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6079…c0bebacked Under46c1,185$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb8f…2343backed Over54c1,106$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+47.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…fe7ebacked Over54c1,103$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37ca…5d22backed Over54c1,011$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.06425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under56c1,005$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.73,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ff…1e20backed Over54c988$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.48425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x549e…a64cbacked Over54c968$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+61.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3021…483ebacked Over54c962$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0464…4bd8backed Over54c962$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8f…5a0bbacked Over54c952$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2710…87ebbacked Over54c752$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under43c675.7$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.074,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c11…0f88backed Over54c528$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450c…7154backed Over54c521$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.66475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over54c513.86$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.229,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over60c463$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.22,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked Under64c424.69$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.937440.5%30 W · 44 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e2e…153ebacked Over54c421$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.66450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under42c384$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.281,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Over53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3619741.6%82 W · 115 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over58c338.33$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.120638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over66c311.44$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.782,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Over66c299.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1022330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-56%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under40c294$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.61,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Under45c261.62$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6917250.6%87 W · 85 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10085147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Over47c234.04$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.0431151.1%159 W · 152 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Over49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10248146.2%222 W · 259 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005547.3%26 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under50c189.85$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.82,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e16…9719backed Under53c188.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Over59c130$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.38151.9%42 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over53c126$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2252052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under40c118.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.173,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under39c117.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.451,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874e…9bcabacked Over30c113.26$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.283336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1304…cce4backed Over55c109.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.092470.8%17 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e8…081abacked Over54c102$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.92425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x985b…ce2cbacked Over60c100.23$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.231758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Under12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.563427.3%173 W · 461 L-19.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f9c…5007backed Over54c88$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under42c85.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ad…8b71backed Over61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.973050%15 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over45c76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.85,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under45c68.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.511,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed Over60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.678263.4%52 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb710…a6babacked Over60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.675100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under42c56.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.772,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Over60c55.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3624363.8%155 W · 88 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over61c53.82$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.821,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over53c46.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9911443%49 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Over46c42.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8132346.4%150 W · 173 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under48c41.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9832853%174 W · 154 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.