NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0274ce7f6d7a8fa89430291e56bfc5527c2cb28f3b12bca2a43e58f081da8c2f

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $106,368
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $106,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,368 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1b5e…83f8backed Over	52c	35,000$18,181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,818.47	116	56.9%66 W · 50 L	+10.6wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+17%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cae…a00abacked Over	52c	19,082$9,923 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,159.32	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+5.9wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	47c	15,155$7,133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,133.08	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Under	44c	11,150$4,951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,950.62	398	42.5%169 W · 229 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	48c	10,329$4,947 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,947.45	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	48c	5,611$2,691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,690.83	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0464…4bd8backed Over	49c	5,477$2,684 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,793.27	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f9c…5007backed Over	49c	5,325$2,609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,715.75	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8f…5a0bbacked Over	49c	5,159$2,528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,631.09	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under	45c	3,830$1,723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,723.28	247	44.1%109 W · 138 L	-10.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Over	53c	3,209$1,701 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,508.06	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	57c	3,000$1,710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,290	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb996…9bb7backed Over	49c	2,651$1,299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,352.01	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	50cpaid	+52.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a11…e3fdbacked Under	51c	2,651$1,352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,352.01	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Under	47c	2,543$1,204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,204	121	51.2%62 W · 59 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Under	48c	2,179$1,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,045.73	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x794d…5489backed Under	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Under	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-10.0wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-19%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe261…2d23backed Under	51c	1,970$1,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,004.7	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e2e…153ebacked Under	51c	1,926$982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$982.26	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3e…1f01backed Under	51c	1,847$942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$941.97	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Under	48c	1,805$866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$866.35	281	47.7%134 W · 147 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c11…0f88backed Under	51c	1,795$915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$915.45	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cc…f284backed Under	51c	1,682$858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.82	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd805…960abacked Under	51c	1,674$854 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$853.74	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Under	47c	1,612$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.41	265	44.9%119 W · 146 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d82…43eebacked Under	51c	1,559$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.09	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	57c	1,555$886 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$668.65	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2710…87ebbacked Under	51c	1,508$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$769.08	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over	53c	1,328$704 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$624.09	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under	45c	1,090$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.5	714	49.3%352 W · 362 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd622…8b56backed Under	45c	1,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	83	39.8%33 W · 50 L	-5.4wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Under	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	111	37.8%42 W · 69 L	-14.2wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-28%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	48c	786$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.82	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Under	49c	766.65$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.38	166	42.2%70 W · 96 L	-11.2wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	48c	700$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under	48c	480$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.4	206	38.3%79 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	44c	454.55$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under	46c	434.78$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under	48c	400$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	48c	389$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.72	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over	55c	355.89$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.15	492	49.8%245 W · 247 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Under	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	165	39.4%65 W · 100 L	-11.6wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe62e…d3e2backed Over	58c	300$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126	106	44.3%47 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under	48c	222.37$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.74	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under	47c	191.43$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.28	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Under	45c	178$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.1	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	55c	147.16$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.22	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Under	47c	140$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.8	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under	44c	124.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.99	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under	48c	115.81$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.59	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7cf…058dbacked Over	56c	100.31$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x656b…afbcbacked Under	48c	88.01$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x131e…3343backed Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	44c	86.56$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.12	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	45c	82.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.34	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	55c	75.24$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.86	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x725f…cea7backed Under	47c	72.21$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.94	96	42.7%41 W · 55 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	56c	71.42$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.42	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f7…2633backed Over	57c	63.39$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.26	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c23…dfb8backed Under	48c	62.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x348f…a206backed Over	56c	58.45$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.72	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc079…8881backed Under	48c	50.09$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.04	77	53.2%41 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…cfffbacked Over	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc95f…357fbacked Under	44c	46.87$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.62	168	52.4%88 W · 80 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa26…564fbacked Under	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	154	49.4%76 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91f…5aa5backed Under	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6115…d4c5backed Over	56c	41$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.04	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a1…64a3backed Under	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-10.0wins	-0.27per pick	51cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x27ce…9a42backed Over	56c	30.18$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.18	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Over	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	311	55%171 W · 140 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Over	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	153	48.4%74 W · 79 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x152b…9430backed Under	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Under	47c	28.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.18	1,084	42.4%460 W · 624 L	-48.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Over	54c	27.44$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.62	456	51.1%233 W · 223 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Under	46c	24.04$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	288	52.8%152 W · 136 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…2924backed Over	57c	22.81$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.81	176	56.3%99 W · 77 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Over	58c	22.41$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	197	48.2%95 W · 102 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over	57c	21.05$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.05	548	54.2%297 W · 251 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc1…3e21backed Over	49c	20.99$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.6	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e323backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5this page
Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Naji Marshall: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Mavericks won
Warriors vs. MavericksMavericks won
Warriors vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event