NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd91bff03f156c8fd7b553e8737a7695b0ee300b90152665e48944a85e7cb7beb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3ea…bb01backed Under | 51c | 18,000$9,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,179.65 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 13,259$6,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,762.18 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Under | 50c | 9,297$4,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,648.64 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 51c | 6,767$3,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,342.39 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 50c | 5,204$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.73 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 50c | 5,001$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.5 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 50c | 3,600$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Over | 51c | 2,637$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,324$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.24 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Under | 51c | 1,081$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 50c | 658$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…fd0dbacked Under | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 38c | 420$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…5f41backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 361.19$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.83 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 49c | 340$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Over | 51c | 265$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.85 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…44d0backed Under | 50c | 196$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 50c | 160.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 118.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 49c | 106.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…d9cfbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…e308backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 82.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 79.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 51c | 66.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…6bcfbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…058dbacked Over | 52c | 31.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…1a96backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…4284backed Over | 51c | 22.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…d630backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5this page
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Warriors vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.