World Politics · resolved market
Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa32cc15bfac6bf55db635aa189a5d400fa851fb268edafa8b49cc14ce2f663ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 61c | 1,243$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.55 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 354.73$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 48c | 351$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.32 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 319.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 37c | 263$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 20c | 236$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 6c | 170.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 63c | 163.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…1989backed No | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 77c | 122$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 117.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…c810backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 21c | 88.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed No | 37c | 77.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 30c | 69.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 23c | 66.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe436…f3d6backed No | 28c | 63.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 31c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 22c | 54.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…f24fbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…2168backed Yes | 65c | 46.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 35c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 40.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ad…28cbbacked No | 31c | 39.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 36.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb444…3addbacked Yes | 73c | 36.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 38c | 35.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…f65dbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3d…d42dbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…752abacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Yes | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election?this page
- Will Ernesto Bello win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.