World Politics · resolved market
Will Ernesto Bello win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16fc5e2497aa108c0cb2538ea39e430c1fb89237e92cca196c4ddca11f8ab07a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 6c | 1,494$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,249$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.56 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 76c | 1,215$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 10c | 594.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 19c | 351$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 303.98$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 296$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 25c | 265.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 234.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 170.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 117.18$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 117.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 11c | 116.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 28c | 114.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 111.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 73c | 84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 79.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 35c | 70.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed No | 77c | 62.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 73c | 58.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 77c | 54.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 74c | 49.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 26c | 43.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 40.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3d…d42dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…752abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cba…38ffbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…e150backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ernesto Bello win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election?this page
- Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.